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Pre-Crisis Determinants of Tourism Resilience

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  • Marcus Roller

Abstract

In this study, I provide a location choice model incorporating five pre-crisis determinants for tourists' destination choice to study the impact of these determinants on the resilience of tourism. The determinants are the kind of destination (rural vs. urban), the pre-crisis origin country specific attractiveness of the destination, the infrastructure size, the density, and the local culture. I estimate the effect of these determinants on the recovery of hotel overnight stays during the COVID-19 pandemic in Switzerland. I find that urban areas had an up to 75% percent lower recovery level. Half of this difference is due to their pre-crisis specific attractiveness for international tourists. This implies that a miss-match between long-run local touristic capital and domestic demand preferences prevents destinations from substituting the missing international tourists with domestic tourists. While infrastructure size affects the resilience ambiguously, density weakens the resilience in cities. Culture does not play a role if there are no local COVID-19 policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Roller, 2022. "Pre-Crisis Determinants of Tourism Resilience," Diskussionsschriften credresearchpaper39, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft - CRED.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper39
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    File URL: https://repec.vwiit.ch/cred/CREDResearchPaper39.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marcus Roller & Kurt Schmidheiny, 2016. "Effective Tax Rates and Effective Progressivity in a Fiscally Decentralized Country," CESifo Working Paper Series 5834, CESifo.
    2. Sébastien Kraenzlin & Christoph Meyer & Thomas Nellen, 2020. "COVID-19 and regional shifts in Swiss retail payments," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Qiu, Richard T.R. & Wu, Doris Chenguang & Dropsy, Vincent & Petit, Sylvain & Pratt, Stephen & Ohe, Yasuo, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Yang, Yang & Zhang, Carol X. & Rickly, Jillian M., 2021. "A review of early COVID-19 research in tourism: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research's Curated Collection on coronavirus and tourism1," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2019. "On Event Study Designs and Distributed-Lag Models: Equivalence, Generalization and Practical Implications," CESifo Working Paper Series 7481, CESifo.
    6. Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Saayman, Andrea & Jean-Pierre, Philippe & Provenzano, Davide & Sahli, Mondher & Seetaram, Neelu & Volo, Serena, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    8. Marcus Roller, 2023. "Estimation of direct net effects of events," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1577-1597, September.
    9. André Moser & Viktor von Wyl & Marc Höglinger, 2021. "Health and social behaviour through pandemic phases in Switzerland: Regional time-trends of the COVID-19 Social Monitor panel study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-23, August.
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    11. Liu, Anyu & Vici, Laura & Ramos, Vicente & Giannoni, Sauveur & Blake, Adam, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
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    16. Beatrix Eugster & Raphaël Parchet, 2019. "Culture and Taxes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 296-337.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism; COVID-19; resilience; structure; estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z3 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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