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Demonetization and digitalization: The Indian government's hidden agenda

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  • Fouillet, Cyril
  • Guérin, Isabelle
  • Servet, Jean-Michel

Abstract

The Indian demonetizations of November 2016 came at an entirely new scale to those of January 1946 and January 1978. This time around, the Narendra Modi government's measures applied to 86.4% of the banknotes and coins in circulation, the equivalent to 11% of GDP. Much analysis has been undertaken on the demonetization. This has largely been critical because of its disastrous consequences on local populations and the most deprived among them. Our paper adopts a different angle: it argues that demonetization has had a key impact on the digitalization of payments. We use data from the Reserve Bank of India from 2014 to 2020 to show that the demonetization period brought about a decline in Automatic Teller Machines (ATM) withdrawals. It equally boosted the adoption of digital means of payments, via Point of Sale Terminals (POS) and mobile banking. Since October 2016, the number of POS transactions has risen almost threefold, while the number of ATM transactions has decreased by almost one-fifth. The current government's rhetoric is to promote digitalization as a means of both formalizing the economy and protecting the poor. Its claim is unfortunately highly debatable.

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  • Fouillet, Cyril & Guérin, Isabelle & Servet, Jean-Michel, 2021. "Demonetization and digitalization: The Indian government's hidden agenda," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:45:y:2021:i:2:s0308596120301695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2020.102079
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    Cited by:

    1. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2022. "On the stabilizing role of cash for societies," IMFS Working Paper Series 167, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Goutam Sutar & Krantiraditya Dhalmahapatra & Sayan Chakraborty, 2023. "Impact of India’s Demonetization Episode on its Equity Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(4), pages 649-675, December.
    3. Marcin Suder & Tomasz Wójtowicz & Rafał Kusa & Henryk Gurgul, 2023. "Challenges for ATM management in times of market variability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic crisi," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 31(2), pages 445-465, June.

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