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A world population growth model: Interaction with Earth's carrying capacity and technology in limited space

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  • Taagepera, Rein

Abstract

Up to 1900, world population growth over 1500years fitted the quasi-hyperbolic format P(t)=a/(D−t)M, but this fit projected to infinite population around 2000. The recent slowdown has been fitted only by iteration of differential equations. This study fits the mean world population estimates from CE 400 to present with “tamed quasi-hyperbolic function” P(t)=A/[ln(B+e(D−t)/τ)]M, which reverts to P=a/(D−t)M when t<

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  • Taagepera, Rein, 2014. "A world population growth model: Interaction with Earth's carrying capacity and technology in limited space," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 34-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:82:y:2014:i:c:p:34-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Kuznets, 1960. "Population Change and Aggregate Output," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 324-351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dolgonosov, Boris M., 2016. "Knowledge production and world population dynamics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 127-141.
    2. Okuducu, Mahmut Burak & Aral, Mustafa M., 2017. "Knowledge based dynamic human population models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Yingying Zhang & Yigang Wei & Jian Zhang, 2021. "Overpopulation and urban sustainable development—population carrying capacity in Shanghai based on probability-satisfaction evaluation method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3318-3337, March.

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