IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v182y2022ics0040162522003274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economy-wide impacts of road transport electrification in the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Tamba, Marie
  • Krause, Jette
  • Weitzel, Matthias
  • Ioan, Raileanu
  • Duboz, Louison
  • Grosso, Monica
  • Vandyck, Toon

Abstract

While electrification of road transport is a key component of decarbonisation, the implications for the broader economy and related jobs remain underexplored. We quantify these impacts in the EU in a global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, combining techno-economic assumptions about electric vehicles with deployment scenarios derived by energy models. We augment input-output tables underlying the JRC-GEM-E3 model with an explicit representation of vehicle manufacturing and upgrade the modelling of vehicle purchase and operation. Our findings illustrate that greater road transport electrification reduces the overall costs of climate mitigation, primarily driven by lower fuel costs for electric vehicles and a faster decline of battery costs. Transport electrification alters supply-chains and leads to structural shifts in employment from traditional vehicle manufacturing towards battery production, electricity supply and related investments. Finally, we expand the set of labour market indicators to cover skills and occupations, to refine the socio-economic assessments of climate policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamba, Marie & Krause, Jette & Weitzel, Matthias & Ioan, Raileanu & Duboz, Louison & Grosso, Monica & Vandyck, Toon, 2022. "Economy-wide impacts of road transport electrification in the EU," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:182:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522003274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162522003274
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121803?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angel Aguiar & Badri Narayanan & Robert McDougall, 2016. "An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(1), pages 181-208, June.
    2. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Longden, Thomas & Chen, Wenying & Fu, Sha & Kriegler, Elmar & Kyle, Page & Luderer, Gunnar, 2014. "Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy-economy models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 95-108.
    3. KERAMIDAS Kimon & DIAZ VAZQUEZ Ana R. & WEITZEL Matthias & VANDYCK Toon & TAMBA Marie & TCHUNG-MING Stephane & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & KRAUSE Jette & VAN DINGENEN Rita & SO CHAI Qimin & FU Sha & WEN X, 2020. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2019: Electrification for the low-carbon transition," JRC Research Reports JRC119619, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Krause, Jette & Thiel, Christian & Tsokolis, Dimitrios & Samaras, Zissis & Rota, Christian & Ward, Andy & Prenninger, Peter & Coosemans, Thierry & Neugebauer, Stephan & Verhoeve, Wim, 2020. "EU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Matthias Weitzel & Toon Vandyck & Kimon Keramidas & Markus Amann & Pantelis Capros & Michel den Elzen & Stefan Frank & Stéphane Tchung-Ming & Ana Díaz Vázquez & Bert Saveyn, 2019. "Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 345-347, May.
    6. David McCollum & Volker Krey & Peter Kolp & Yu Nagai & Keywan Riahi, 2014. "Transport electrification: A key element for energy system transformation and climate stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 651-664, April.
    7. Zoi Vrontisi & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Maria Kannavou & Pantelis Capros, 2020. "Energy system transition and macroeconomic impacts of a European decarbonization action towards a below 2 °C climate stabilization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1857-1875, October.
    8. Moon, Saedaseul & Lee, Deok-Joo, 2019. "An optimal electric vehicle investment model for consumers using total cost of ownership: A real option approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Funke, Simon & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "What is the market potential of electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S14/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    10. Palmer, Kate & Tate, James E. & Wadud, Zia & Nellthorp, John, 2018. "Total cost of ownership and market share for hybrid and electric vehicles in the UK, US and Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 108-119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Xiaohui & Huang, Qi & Cao, Huajun & Wang, Qianyue & Yan, Wanbin & Cao, Le, 2023. "Battery capacity selection for electric construction machinery considering variable operating conditions and multiple interest claims," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    2. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Nikas, Alexandros & Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan & Xexakis, Georgios & Forouli, Aikaterini & Mittal, Shivika & Gambhir, Ajay & Koutsellis, Themistoklis & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Towards a green recovery in the EU: Aligning further emissions reductions with short- and long-term energy-sector employment gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Pantelis Capros, 2021. "Simulating the Evolution of Business Models for Electricity Recharging Infrastructure Development by 2030: A Case Study for Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    2. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    3. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    4. Amela Ajanovic & Reinhard Haas, 2020. "On the economics and the future prospects of battery electric vehicles," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(6), pages 1151-1164, December.
    5. Zhou, Kaile & Cheng, Lexin & Lu, Xinhui & Wen, Lulu, 2020. "Scheduling model of electric vehicles charging considering inconvenience and dynamic electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    6. Bamidele Victor Ayodele & Siti Indati Mustapa, 2020. "Life Cycle Cost Assessment of Electric Vehicles: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Siskos, Pelopidas & Zazias, Georgios & Petropoulos, Apostolos & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & Capros, Pantelis, 2018. "Implications of delaying transport decarbonisation in the EU: A systems analysis using the PRIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 48-60.
    8. Stergios Statharas & Yannis Moysoglou & Pelopidas Siskos & Georgios Zazias & Pantelis Capros, 2019. "Factors Influencing Electric Vehicle Penetration in the EU by 2030: A Model-Based Policy Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-25, July.
    9. Lawrence Fulton, 2020. "A Publicly Available Simulation of Battery Electric, Hybrid Electric, and Gas-Powered Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, May.
    10. Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Ou, Shiqi & Ouyang, Minggao, 2020. "Range cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle for heterogeneous consumers: An expanded total ownership cost approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    11. Burd, Joshua Thomas Jameson & Moore, Elizabeth A. & Ezzat, Hesham & Kirchain, Randolph & Roth, Richard, 2021. "Improvements in electric vehicle battery technology influence vehicle lightweighting and material substitution decisions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    12. Malima, Gabriel Clement & Moyo, Francis, 2023. "Are electric vehicles economically viable in sub-Saharan Africa? The total cost of ownership of internal combustion engine and electric vehicles in Tanzania," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 14-26.
    13. Kondev, Bozhil & Dixon, James & Zhou, Zhaoqi & Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Sultanaliev, Kanat & Hirmer, Stephanie A., 2023. "Putting the foot down: Accelerating EV uptake in Kyrgyzstan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 87-96.
    14. Robert J.R. Elliott & Viet Nguyen-Tien & Eric Strobl & Chengyu Zhang, 2024. "Estimating the longevity of electric vehicles: What do 300 million MOT test results tell us?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1972, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2020. "The economic and emissions benefits of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Vladimír Konečný & Jozef Gnap & Tomáš Settey & František Petro & Tomáš Skrúcaný & Tomasz Figlus, 2020. "Environmental Sustainability of the Vehicle Fleet Change in Public City Transport of Selected City in Central Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-23, July.
    17. Inkyo Cheong & Valijon Turakulov, 2022. "How Central Asia to Escape from trade isolation?: Policy targeted scenarios by CGE modelling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2622-2648, August.
    18. Audoly, Richard & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Guivarch, Céline & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "Pathways toward zero-carbon electricity required for climate stabilization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 884-901.
    19. Taoyuan Wei & Qin Zhu & Solveig Glomsrød, 2018. "Ageing Impact on the Economy and Emissions in China: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-13, April.
    20. Balie, Jean & Strutt, Anna & Nelgen, Signe & Narayanan, 2018. "Infrastructure investments for improved market access in subSaharan Africa: A CGE analysis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:182:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522003274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.