IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v128y2018icp197-207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Y.
  • Weng, W.G.
  • Huang, Z.L.

Abstract

Earthquakes usually produce a complex disaster chain including fires, landslides, floods, plague, and social panic, which eventually leads to disastrous consequences. In such situations, earthquake emergency management is vital for reducing the risks and the disastrous consequences. Scenario-based methods have often been used by decision makers in different fields as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the effects of earthquakes. This paper adopts a scenario-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of earthquake emergency management. The model extracts the key elements of earthquake emergency management, simulates possible earthquake disaster scenarios, and obtains an evaluation according to the real situation. It is verified by comparing it with the real situation of the Wenchuan earthquake in China through scenario deduction and simulation. It shows that the scenario-based model can be used to reproduce the development process of an earthquake, identify the key factors which can effectively reduce earthquake losses and then help policy makers to have a better understanding of the earthquake disaster from which to put forward practical measures for emergency management.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Y. & Weng, W.G. & Huang, Z.L., 2018. "A scenario-based model for earthquake emergency management effectiveness evaluation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 197-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:128:y:2018:i:c:p:197-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251730567X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mieko Kumasaki & Malcolm King & Mitsuru Arai & Lili Yang, 2016. "Anatomy of cascading natural disasters in Japan: main modes and linkages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1425-1441, February.
    2. Peijia Ren & Zeshui Xu & Jing Gu, 2016. "Assessments of the Effectiveness of an Earthquake Emergency Plan Implementation with Hesitant Analytic Hierarchy Process," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(06), pages 1367-1389, November.
    3. Bañuls, Victor A. & Turoff, Murray & Hiltz, Starr Roxanne, 2013. "Collaborative scenario modeling in emergency management through cross-impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1756-1774.
    4. Wex, Felix & Schryen, Guido & Feuerriegel, Stefan & Neumann, Dirk, 2014. "Emergency response in natural disaster management: Allocation and scheduling of rescue units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 697-708.
    5. Jenkins, L., 2000. "Selecting scenarios for environmental disaster planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 275-286, March.
    6. Peter F. Nardulli & Buddy Peyton & Joseph Bajjalieh, 2015. "Climate Change and Civil Unrest," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(2), pages 310-335, March.
    7. Yang, Yongsheng & Khan, Faisal & Thodi, Premkumar & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2017. "Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 214-222.
    8. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Beynaghi, Ali & Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Maknoon, Reza, 2016. "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 162-171.
    9. Chang, Mei-Shiang & Tseng, Ya-Ling & Chen, Jing-Wen, 2007. "A scenario planning approach for the flood emergency logistics preparation problem under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 737-754, November.
    10. Ignacio Barranco & Vicente Gracia & Joan Pau Sierra & Hector Perea & Xavier Gironella, 2017. "Tsunami hazards in the Catalan Coast, a low-intensity seismic activity area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1273-1295, September.
    11. Tam Vu & Ilan Noy, 2015. "Regional effects of natural disasters in China: investing in post-disaster recovery," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 111-126, February.
    12. Mieko Kumasaki & Malcolm King & Mitsuru Arai & Lili Yang, 2016. "Anatomy of cascading natural disasters in Japan: main modes and linkages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1425-1441, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Narayan Prasad Nagendra & Gopalakrishnan Narayanamurthy & Roger Moser, 2022. "Management of humanitarian relief operations using satellite big data analytics: the case of Kerala floods," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 319(1), pages 885-910, December.
    2. Xiaojiao Qiao & Dan Shi, 2019. "Risk Analysis of Emergency Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, November.
    3. Guoyou Yue, 2021. "A Review of the Research on Emergency Logistics for Tropical Cyclone Disasters in Guangxi," GATR Journals gjbssr591, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    4. Sajid Ullah & Farman Ullah Khan & Vanina Adoriana Trifan & Adina Eleonora Spinu & Grigorie Sanda, 2022. "Modeling Key Strategies for Reducing Socio-Economic and Health Crisis: Perspective from COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-21, October.
    5. Yang, Zhen & Dong, Xiaobin & Guo, Li, 2023. "Scenario inference model of urban metro system cascading failure under extreme rainfall conditions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. Wang, Han & Hou, Kai & Zhao, Junbo & Yu, Xiaodan & Jia, Hongjie & Mu, Yunfei, 2022. "Planning-Oriented resilience assessment and enhancement of integrated electricity-gas system considering multi-type natural disasters," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    7. Renlong Wang & Endong Wang & Lingzhi Li & Wei Li, 2022. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of the COVID-19 Emergency Outbreak Prevention and Control Based on CIA-ISM," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-22, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaojiao Qiao & Dan Shi, 2019. "Risk Analysis of Emergency Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, November.
    2. Bowen Guo & Wei Zhan, 2023. "Research on Integrated Scheduling of Multi-Mode Emergency Rescue for Flooding in Chemical Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Vahedberdi Sheikh & Aiding Kornejady & Majid Ownegh, 2019. "Application of the coupled TOPSIS–Mahalanobis distance for multi-hazard-based management of the target districts of the Golestan Province, Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1335-1365, April.
    4. Mete, Huseyin Onur & Zabinsky, Zelda B., 2010. "Stochastic optimization of medical supply location and distribution in disaster management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 76-84, July.
    5. Doan, Xuan Vinh & Shaw, Duncan, 2019. "Resource allocation when planning for simultaneous disasters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 687-709.
    6. Rodríguez-Espíndola, Oscar & Ahmadi, Hossein & Gastélum-Chavira, Diego & Ahumada-Valenzuela, Omar & Chowdhury, Soumyadeb & Dey, Prasanta Kumar & Albores, Pavel, 2023. "Humanitarian logistics optimization models: An investigation of decision-maker involvement and directions to promote implementation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Hiroki Noguchi & Takuma Nishizawa & Masaaki Fuse, 2021. "A method to characterize the social cascading damage processes of disasters using media information," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 231-247, May.
    8. Thomas J. Huggins & Feiyu E & Kangming Chen & Wenwu Gong & Lili Yang, 2020. "Infrastructural Aspects of Rain-Related Cascading Disasters: A Systematic Literature Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-25, July.
    9. Pingping Cao & Jin Zheng & Mingyang Li, 2023. "Post-Earthquake Scheduling of Rescuers: A Method Considering Multiple Disaster Areas and Rescuer Collaboration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Panula-Ontto, J. & Piirainen, K.A., 2018. "EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 89-100.
    11. Leeuw, S. de & Vis, I.F.A. & Jonkman, S.N., 2009. "Logistics aspects of emergency preparedness in flood disaster prevention," Serie Research Memoranda 0044, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    12. Rodríguez-Espíndola, Oscar & Albores, Pavel & Brewster, Christopher, 2018. "Disaster preparedness in humanitarian logistics: A collaborative approach for resource management in floods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 978-993.
    13. Sarhadi, Hassan & Naoum-Sawaya, Joe & Verma, Manish, 2020. "A robust optimization approach to locating and stockpiling marine oil-spill response facilities," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    14. Souza, Juliano Silva & Lim-Apo, Flávio Araújo & Varella, Leonardo & Coelho, Antônio Sérgio & Souza, João Carlos, 2022. "Multi-period optimization model for planning people allocation in shelters and distributing aid with special constraints," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Fattahi, Mohammad & Keyvanshokooh, Esmaeil & Kannan, Devika & Govindan, Kannan, 2023. "Resource planning strategies for healthcare systems during a pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 192-206.
    16. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Jingyi Xue, 2018. "Fair division with uncertain needs," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 51(1), pages 105-136, June.
    18. A. Anaya-Arenas & J. Renaud & A. Ruiz, 2014. "Relief distribution networks: a systematic review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 223(1), pages 53-79, December.
    19. Turoff, Murray & Hiltz, Starr Roxanne & Bañuls, Víctor A. & Van Den Eede, Gerd, 2013. "Multiple perspectives on planning for emergencies: An introduction to the special issue on planning and foresight for emergency preparedness and management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(9), pages 1647-1656.
    20. Araya-Córdova, P.J. & Vásquez, Óscar C., 2018. "The disaster emergency unit scheduling problem to control wildfires," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 311-317.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:128:y:2018:i:c:p:197-207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.