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Foresight for all: Co-elaborative scenario building and empowerment

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  • Bourgeois, Robin
  • Penunia, Esther
  • Bisht, Sonali
  • Boruk, Don

Abstract

We present here a co-elaborative scenario building approach, called Participatory Prospective Analysis (PPA) and discuss its relevance for empowering local communities/organizations. This approach is adapted from the French “La Prospective”. It is used as an action research engaging local farming communities in expanding their understanding of their own futures. Three cases of local implementation at farmer community level in India, Indonesia, and the Philippines illustrate how this approach was implemented. They are part of a global project in the field of food, agriculture and rural development, aiming at balancing the capacity to use the future, which is currently not fairly distributed to the detriment of local stakeholders, organizations and communities. Our results focus on the emergence of futures literacy as a capability, its connection to local agency and societal transformation. Our discussion highlights what in this approach makes the use of scenarios empowering, beyond its participatory features. The capacity to use the future has a great potential for local agency, even if it does not guarantee that communities will have the power or the willingness to directly engage in actions. Nevertheless, this approach seems to be a promising avenue for making everyone a future-literate potential agent of change.

Suggested Citation

  • Bourgeois, Robin & Penunia, Esther & Bisht, Sonali & Boruk, Don, 2017. "Foresight for all: Co-elaborative scenario building and empowerment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 178-188.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:178-188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.018
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    2. Gordon, Adam Vigdor, 2020. "Limits and longevity: A model for scenarios that influence the future," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Hansen, Meiken & Selin, Cynthia, 2021. "Stakeholder inclusion in scenario planning—A review of European projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
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    5. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Schoen, Antoine & Larédo, Philippe & Gallart, Jordi Molas & Warnke, Philine & Kuhlmann, Stefan & Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Antoine Schoen & Philippe Larédo & Jordi Molas Gallart & Philine Warnke & Stefan Kuhlmann & Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Post-Print hal-03232913, HAL.
    8. Caixia Mao & Ryu Koide & Lewis Akenji, 2020. "Applying Foresight to Policy Design for a Long-Term Transition to Sustainable Lifestyles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Zhu, Yu-Qian & Alamsyah, Nurwahyu, 2022. "Citizen empowerment and satisfaction with smart city app: Findings from Jakarta," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    10. Habicher, Daria & Windegger, Felix & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Pechlaner, Harald, 2022. "Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    11. Miloš Ulman & Pavel Šimek & Jan Masner & Pavel Kogut & Tuula Löytty & Patrick Crehan & Karel Charvát & Antoni Oliva & Stein Runar Bergheim & Milan Kalaš & Denis Kolokol & Tommaso Sabbatini, 2020. "Towards Future Oriented Collaborative Policy Development for Rural Areas and People," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 12(1), March.
    12. Genowefa Blundo-Canto & Gonzalo Rodríguez-Borray & Ángela-Rocío Vásquez-Urriago & María-Margarita Ramírez-Gómez & Gregorio Zambrano-Moreno & Leidy Tibaduiza-Castañeda & Bellanid Huertas-Carranza & Adr, 2023. "Impact Weaving: An Approach to Strengthening the Plausibility of Anticipated AR4D Impact Pathways," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(2), pages 402-425, April.
    13. Leena Jokinen & Tuire Palonen & Helka Kalliomäki & Oana Apostol & Katariina Heikkilä, 2020. "Forward-Looking Sustainability Agency for Developing Future Cruise Ships," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-20, November.
    14. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    15. Sarkki, Simo & Pihlajamäki, Mia, 2019. "Baltic herring for food: Shades of grey in how backcasting recommendations work across exploratory scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 200-209.

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