IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03232913.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas K. R. Robinson

    (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel)

  • Antoine Schoen

    (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel)

  • Philippe Larédo

    (LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel)

  • Jordi Molas Gallart

    (INGENIO - Instituto de Gestión de la Innovación y del Conocimiento = Institute of Innovation and Knowledge Management - CSIC - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas [España] = Spanish National Research Council [Spain] - UPV - Universitat Politècnica de València = Universitad Politecnica de Valencia = Polytechnic University of Valencia)

  • Philine Warnke

    (Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft - Fraunhofer)

  • Stefan Kuhlmann

    (University of Twente)

  • Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros

    (Universidad Externado de Colombia, University of Twente)

Abstract

The rich and complex outcomes of foresight activities are often difficult to translate into policy relevant intelligence. The struggle in connecting futures intelligence to policy making can be read as a basic challenge in foresight: working on futures intelligence has emerged as a way to improve policy, but once it is delegated to professional foresight practitioners with attendant quality and quality control, however, it also introduces a distance to policy making. Whilst independence and methodological rigour is desirable for high quality futures intelligence, bridging this intelligence with the policy context is essential for its use. Experiencing this challenge during a scenario exercise on the future European research and innovation system, the authors of this paper embarked on an experiment to go beyond evaluating the robustness of the scenarios, produced in a foresight exercise, by developing and applying "policy lenses" to translate the scenarios into policy tailored intelligence. This paper describes the experiment, which saw the development and application of three types of policy lenses: (1) a lens based on the layered processes of European policy making, (2) a lens based on three research and innovation policy priorities and (3) a lens on alternative geo-political situations of the European continent. The paper describes the logic behind the lenses, the interpretation of the original scenarios when viewed through these lenses, and then concludes by reflecting on how such an experiment could be generalised to other settings of policy-oriented foresight.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas K. R. Robinson & Antoine Schoen & Philippe Larédo & Jordi Molas Gallart & Philine Warnke & Stefan Kuhlmann & Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Post-Print hal-03232913, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03232913
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120803
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03232913
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03232913/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120803?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Minkkinen, Matti, 2019. "The anatomy of plausible futures in policy processes: Comparing the cases of data protection and comprehensive security," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 172-180.
    2. Bourgeois, Robin & Penunia, Esther & Bisht, Sonali & Boruk, Don, 2017. "Foresight for all: Co-elaborative scenario building and empowerment," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 178-188.
    3. Majone, Giandomenico, 2009. "Dilemmas of European Integration: The Ambiguities and Pitfalls of Integration by Stealth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199556809.
    4. Kuhlmann, Stefan, 2001. "Future governance of innovation policy in Europe -- three scenarios," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 953-976, June.
    5. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Mazzucato, Mariana, 2019. "The evolution of mission-oriented policies: Exploring changing market creating policies in the US and European space sector," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 936-948.
    6. Daniele Rotolo & Ismael Rafols & Michael M. Hopkins & Loet Leydesdorff, 2017. "Strategic intelligence on emerging technologies: Scientometric overlay mapping," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 68(1), pages 214-233, January.
    7. Antoine Schoen & T. Könnölä & P. Warnke & R. Barre & S. Kuhlmann, 2011. "Tailoring Foresight to field specificities," Post-Print hal-00645795, HAL.
    8. Aurélie Delemarle & Philippe Larédo, 2014. "Governing radical change through the emergence of a governance arrangement," Chapters, in: Susana Borrás & Jakob Edler (ed.), The Governance of Socio-Technical Systems, chapter 8, pages 159-186, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Stig Slipersæter & Jean Thèves & Barend van der Meulen, 2007. "Comparing the evolution of national research policies: What patterns of change?," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(6), pages 372-388, July.
    10. Andersen, Allan Dahl & Andersen, Per Dannemand, 2014. "Innovation system foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 276-286.
    11. Sondoss Elsawah & Serena Hamilton & Anthony J. Jakeman & Dale Rothman & Vanessa Schweizer & Evelina Trutnevyte & Henrik Carlsen & Crystal Drakes & Bob Frame & Baihua Fu & Céline Guivarch & Marjolijn H, 2020. "Scenario processes for socio-environmental systems analysis of futures: A review of recent efforts and a salient research agenda for supporting decision making," Post-Print halshs-02882176, HAL.
    12. Borrás, Susana & Edler, Jakob, 2020. "The roles of the state in the governance of socio-technical systems’ transformation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(5).
    13. Ruud E. Smits & Stefan Kuhlmann & Phillip Shapira (ed.), 2010. "The Theory and Practice of Innovation Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4181.
    14. Lepori, Benedetto & Reale, Emanuela & Larédo, Philippe, 2014. "Logics of integration and actors’ strategies in European joint programs," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-402.
    15. Schirrmeister, Elna & Warnke, Philine, 2013. "Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 453-466.
    16. Havas, Atttila & Weber, K. Matthias, 2017. "The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution," MPRA Paper 100374, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Borrás, Susana & Edler, Jakob, 2020. "The roles of the state in the governance of socio-technical systems' transformation," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 65, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    18. Remi Barré & Luisa Henriques & Dimitrios Pontikakis & K. Matthias Weber, 2012. "Measuring the integration and coordination dynamics of the European Research Area," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 187-205, October.
    19. Weber, K. Matthias & Schaper-Rinkel, Petra, 2017. "European sectoral innovation foresight: Identifying emerging cross-sectoral patterns and policy issues," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 240-250.
    20. Cristina Chaminade & Charles Esquist, 2010. "Rationales for Public Policy Intervention in the Innovation Process: Systems of Innovation Approach," Chapters, in: Ruud E. Smits & Stefan Kuhlmann & Phillip Shapira (ed.), The Theory and Practice of Innovation Policy, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Lagnau, Axel & Boon, Wouter P.C., 2019. "Innovation pathways in additive manufacturing: Methods for tracing emerging and branching paths from rapid prototyping to alternative applications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 733-750.
    22. Aurélie Delemarle & Philippe Larédo, 2014. "Governing radical change through the emergence of a governance arrangement," Post-Print hal-01273361, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beata Poteralska, 2021. "Support for the Development of Technological Innovations at an R&D Organisation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Wise, Emily & Arnold, Erik, 2022. "Evaluating Transformation – what can we learn from the literature?," Papers in Innovation Studies 2022/10, Lund University, CIRCLE - Centre for Innovation Research.
    3. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & K. Matthias Weber, 2022. "Innovation Studies, Social Innovation, and Sustainability Transitions Research: From mutual ignorance towards an integrative perspective?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2227, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Haddad, Carolina R. & Bergek, Anna, 2023. "Towards an integrated framework for evaluating transformative innovation policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    5. Douglas, Conor M.W. & Panagiotoglou, Dimitra & Dragojlovic, Nick & Lynd, Larry, 2021. "Methodology for constructing scenarios for health policy research: The case of coverage decision-making for drugs for rare diseases in Canada," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. Hamed A. Ead & Sahar M. Fadallah & Heba M. Fahmy & Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk & Leonardo Piccinetti & Mahmoud M. Sakr, 2021. "Awareness of foresight through education in Egypt: a case study from Egyptian university," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 3(4), pages 10-20, December.
    7. Hamed A Ead & Sahar M Fadallah & Heba M Fahmy & Mohamed Ramadan A Rezk & Leonardo Piccinetti & Mahmoud M Sakr, 2021. "Awareness of foresight through education in Egypt: a case study from Egyptian university," Post-Print hal-03584006, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Schoen, Antoine & Larédo, Philippe & Gallart, Jordi Molas & Warnke, Philine & Kuhlmann, Stefan & Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Joanna Stryjek, 2021. "Counteracting the COVID-19 Crisis with Innovation Policy Tools: A Case Study of the EU’s Supranational Innovation Policy," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 450-468.
    3. Matthijs Jansen, 2022. "Legitimation and Effects of Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies: A Spillover Perspective," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 243(4), pages 7-28, December.
    4. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Clausen, Niels-Erik & Cronin, Tom & Piirainen, Kalle A., 2018. "The North Sea Offshore Wind Service Industry: Status, perspectives and a joint action plan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2672-2683.
    5. Lepori, Benedetto & Reale, Emanuela & Larédo, Philippe, 2014. "Logics of integration and actors’ strategies in European joint programs," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-402.
    6. Jonas Heiberg & Bernhard Truffer, 2021. "The emergence of a global innovation system – a case study from the water sector," GEIST - Geography of Innovation and Sustainability Transitions 2021(09), GEIST Working Paper Series.
    7. Bellink, Miriam & Verburg, René W., 2023. "A system lock-in blocks the uptake of mixed sustainable Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Anugerah Yuka Asmara, 2020. "Innovation in Delivering Public Health Service: Practice In Banyuwangi Regency � Indonesia," GATR Journals gjbssr552, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    9. Andersen, Allan Dahl & Andersen, Per Dannemand, 2014. "Innovation system foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 276-286.
    10. Inga Ulnicane & William Knight & Tonii Leach & Bernd Carsten Stahl & Winter-Gladys Wanjiku, 2021. "Framing governance for a contested emerging technology:insights from AI policy [The next space race is Artificial Intelligence]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 40(2), pages 158-177.
    11. Iris Wanzenböck & Koen Frenken, 2018. "The subsidiarity principle: Turning challenge-oriented innovation policy on its head," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1806, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jan 2018.
    12. Andersen, Per Dannemand & Johnston, Ron & Saritas, Ozcan, 2017. "FTA and Innovation Systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 236-239.
    13. Kieft, Alco & Harmsen, Robert & Hekkert, Marko P., 2020. "Toward ranking interventions for Technological Innovation Systems via the concept of Leverage Points," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    14. Jackwerth, Thomas & Afghani, Nof & Daimer, Stephanie & Lindner, Ralf & Wittmann, Florian, 2023. "Public sector organisations as agents of transformations: A framework for analysing structural changes within Public Sector Organisations (PSO)," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 80, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    15. van Oudheusden, Michiel & Charlier, Nathan & Rosskamp, Benedikt & Delvenne, Pierre, 2015. "Broadening, deepening, and governing innovation: Flemish technology assessment in historical and socio-political perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1877-1886.
    16. Stahl, Bernd Carsten & Brooks, Laurence & Hatzakis, Tally & Santiago, Nicole & Wright, David, 2023. "Exploring ethics and human rights in artificial intelligence – A Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Jonas Heiberg & Bernhard Truffer, 2021. "Overcoming the harmony fallacy: How values shape the course of innovation systems," GEIST - Geography of Innovation and Sustainability Transitions 2021(03), GEIST Working Paper Series.
    18. Mora, Luca & Gerli, Paolo & Ardito, Lorenzo & Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio, 2023. "Smart city governance from an innovation management perspective: Theoretical framing, review of current practices, and future research agenda," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    19. Jhon Wilder Zartha Sossa & Oscar Hernán López Montoya & Julio Cesar Acosta Prado, 2021. "Determinants of a sustainable innovation system," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 1345-1356, February.
    20. Lindner, Ralf & Edler, Jakob & Hufnagl, Miriam & Kimpeler, Simone & Kroll, Henning & Roth, Florian & Wittmann, Florian & Yorulmaz, Merve, 2021. "Mission-oriented innovation policy: From ambition to successful implementation," Perspectives – Policy Briefs 02 / 2021, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03232913. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.