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Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation

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  • Schirrmeister, Elna
  • Warnke, Philine

Abstract

The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations. Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www.innovation-futures.org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied in order to underpin the recognition of structural transformation:•Inductive foresight approach with an emphasis on capturing indications for extra-systemic change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends.•Visual inspiration, to mobilise tacit knowledge, support a creative spirit and an easy exchange of ideas among people with different disciplinary backgrounds.•Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, to foster the explicit consideration of possibly unrecognised/hidden structural changes•Extended openness for diversity, to avoid the exclusive interpretation of weak signals only in the context of the existing structures.

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  • Schirrmeister, Elna & Warnke, Philine, 2013. "Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 453-466.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:3:p:453-466
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Weber, K. Matthias & Rohracher, Harald, 2012. "Legitimizing research, technology and innovation policies for transformative change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1037-1047.
    2. Pierre-Benoit Joly & Arie Rip & Michael Callon, 2010. "Re-inventing Innovation," Chapters, in: Maarten J. Arentsen & Wouter van Rossum & Albert E. Steenge (ed.), Governance of Innovation, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Bleischwitz, Raimund & Bahn-Walkowiak, Bettina & Irrek, Wolfgang & Schepelmann, Phillip & Schmidt-Bleek, Friedrich & Giljum, Stefan & Lutter, Stephan & Bohunovski, Lisa & Hinterberger, Friedrich & Haw, 2009. "Eco-Innovation - putting the EU on the path to a resource and energy efficient economy," Wuppertal Spezial, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, volume 38, number 38.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cagnin, Cristiano & Havas, Attila & Saritas, Ozcan, 2013. "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 379-385.
    2. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Schoen, Antoine & Larédo, Philippe & Gallart, Jordi Molas & Warnke, Philine & Kuhlmann, Stefan & Ordóñez-Matamoros, Gonzalo, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Warnke, Philine & Schirrmeister, Elna, 2018. "Transition-scenarios towards socially sustainable global value chains: Insights from the SONA WSK Foresight," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S10/2018, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    4. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Antoine Schoen & Philippe Larédo & Jordi Molas Gallart & Philine Warnke & Stefan Kuhlmann & Gonzalo Ordóñez-Matamoros, 2021. "Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts," Post-Print hal-03232913, HAL.
    5. Hanna, Richard & Gross, Robert, 2021. "How do energy systems model and scenario studies explicitly represent socio-economic, political and technological disruption and discontinuity? Implications for policy and practitioners," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Hansen, Mette Sanne & Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard & Jacobsen, Peter, 2016. "Interactive foresight simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 214-227.
    7. M. Lynne Markus & Kevin Mentzer, 2014. "Foresight for a responsible future with ICT," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 353-368, July.
    8. Dönitz, Ewa & Breitschopf, Barbara & Burghard, Uta, 2023. "Scenarios of a desirable and fair energy transition," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S03/2023, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).

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