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Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity

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  • Metz, Ashley
  • Hartley, Paul

Abstract

Scenario development is a core component of foresight practitioners’ and long-term planners’ work. Practices play a critical role in shaping and reifying taken-for-granted structures and ideas, and as such deserve attention. In this paper, we conceptualize scenario building as a practice of valuation. Doing so calls attention to constructive elements and highlights the importance of studying the practice and the field, not only to derive best practices, but to understand how they work and to what potential consequences. We illustrate these ideas with a scenario development consulting project for an international infrastructure company in which we alter the method in three main places: scanning, interim scenario work and scenario development. We demonstrate how conscious attention to the practice can drive subtle shifts in practice and how a ‘valuation lens’ encourages reflexivity about the use of practices.

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  • Metz, Ashley & Hartley, Paul, 2020. "Scenario development as valuation: Opportunities for reflexivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:155:y:2020:i:c:s004016251930993x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120027
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    5. Bouhalleb, Arafet & Tapinos, Efstathios, 2023. "The impact of scenario planning on entrepreneurial orientation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

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