IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/techno/v125y2023ics0166497223000755.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data

Author

Listed:
  • Parteka, Aleksandra
  • Kordalska, Aleksandra

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the relationship between technological innovation in the artificial intelligence (AI) domain and macroeconomic productivity. We embed recently released data on patents and publications related to AI in an augmented model of productivity growth, which we estimate for the OECD countries and compare to an extended sample including non-OECD countries. Our estimates provide evidence in favour of the modern productivity paradox. We show that the development of AI technologies remains a niche innovation phenomenon with a negligible role in the officially recorded productivity growth process. This general result, i.e. a lack of a strong relationship between AI and registered macroeconomic productivity growth, is robust to changes in the country sample, in the way we quantify labour productivity and technology (including AI stock), in the specification of the empirical model (control variables) and in estimation methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Parteka, Aleksandra & Kordalska, Aleksandra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:techno:v:125:y:2023:i:c:s0166497223000755
    DOI: 10.1016/j.technovation.2023.102764
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166497223000755
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.technovation.2023.102764?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erik Brynjolfsson & Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson, 2021. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 333-372, January.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    3. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117.
    4. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    5. Crafts, Nicholas, 2004. "Productivity Growth in the Industrial Revolution: A New Growth Accounting Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 521-535, June.
    6. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    7. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-1036, July.
    8. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    10. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    11. Peter Gal & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Theodore Renault & Stéphane Sorbe & Christina Timiliotis, 2019. "Digitalisation and productivity: In search of the holy grail – Firm-level empirical evidence from EU countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1533, OECD Publishing.
    12. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, September.
    13. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2005. "Patents, Citations, and Innovations: A Window on the Knowledge Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026260065x, December.
    14. Dirk Pilat & Franck Lee & Bart van Ark, 2003. "Production and Use of ICT: A Sectoral Perspective on Productivity Growth in the OECD Area," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2002(2), pages 47-78.
    15. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    16. Lene Kromann & Nikolaj Malchow-Møller & Jan Rose Skaksen & Anders Sørensen, 2020. "Automation and productivity—a cross-country, cross-industry comparison," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 29(2), pages 265-287.
    17. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    18. Mario Benassi & Elena Grinza & Francesco Rentocchini & Laura Rondi, 2022. "Patenting in 4IR technologies and firm performance [Robots and jobs: evidence from US labor markets]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(1), pages 112-136.
    19. Ceccobelli, M. & Gitto, S. & Mancuso, P., 2012. "ICT capital and labour productivity growth: A non-parametric analysis of 14 OECD countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 282-292.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2014. "Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in US Manufacturing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 394-399, May.
    21. Schankerman, Mark & Pakes, Ariel, 1986. "Estimates of the Value of Patent Rights in European Countries during the Post-1950 Period," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(384), pages 1052-1076, December.
    22. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    23. Miyagawa, Tsutomu & Tonogi, Konomi & Ishikawa, Takayuki, 2021. "Does the productivity J-curve exist in Japan?-Empirical studies based on the multiple q theory," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    24. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2020. "Is The Uk Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 251, pages 47-53, February.
    25. Peter Gal & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christina von Rüden & Stéphane Sorbe & Théodore Renault, 2019. "Digitalization and Productivity: In Search of the Holy Grail - Firm-level Empirical Evidence from European Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 37, pages 39-71, Fall.
    26. Elstner, Steffen & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2018. "The German productivity paradox: Facts and explanations," Ruhr Economic Papers 767, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    27. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    28. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    29. Fujii, Hidemichi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2018. "Trends and priority shifts in artificial intelligence technology invention: A global patent analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 60-69.
    30. Robert J. Gordon, 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears to be Accelerating?," NBER Working Papers 24554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Paolo Buccirossi & Lorenzo Ciari & Tomaso Duso & Giancarlo Spagnolo & Cristiana Vitale, 2013. "Competition Policy and Productivity Growth: An Empirical Assessment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1324-1336, October.
    32. Miller, Stephen M. & Upadhyay, Mukti P., 2000. "The effects of openness, trade orientation, and human capital on total factor productivity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 399-423, December.
    33. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart van Ark, 2005. "Does information and communication technology drive EU-US productivity growth differentials?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 693-716, October.
    34. Nicholas Crafts, 2018. "The productivity slowdown: is it the ‘new normal’?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 443-460.
    35. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    36. Bart van Ark & Mary O'Mahoney & Marcel P. Timmer, 2008. "The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 25-44, Winter.
    37. Giacomo Damioli & Vincent Van Roy & Daniel Vertesy, 2021. "The impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, March.
    38. William D. Nordhaus, 2021. "Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 299-332, January.
    39. Polák, Petr, 2017. "The productivity paradox: A meta-analysis," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-54.
    40. Arthur Lewbel, 2012. "Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 67-80.
    41. Igna, Ioana & Venturini, Francesco, 2023. "The determinants of AI innovation across European firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    42. Davide Castellani & Fabio Lamperti & Katiuscia Lavoratori, 2022. "Measuring adoption of industry 4.0 technologies via international trade data: insights from European countries," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(1), pages 51-93, March.
    43. Bart van Ark, 2016. "The Productivity Paradox of the New Digital Economy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 3-18, Fall.
    44. Cugno, Monica & Castagnoli, Rebecca & Büchi, Giacomo & Pini, Marco, 2022. "Industry 4.0 and production recovery in the covid era," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    45. Carol Corrado & Jonathan Haskel & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2021. "Artificial intelligence and productivity: an intangible assets approach," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(3), pages 435-458.
    46. Pieri, Fabio & Vecchi, Michela & Venturini, Francesco, 2018. "Modelling the joint impact of R&D and ICT on productivity: A frontier analysis approach," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1842-1852.
    47. Jarmila Botev & Balázs Égert & Zuzana Smidova & David Turner, 2019. "A new macroeconomic measure of human capital with strong empirical links to productivity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1575, OECD Publishing.
    48. Stefano Baruffaldi & Brigitte van Beuzekom & Hélène Dernis & Dietmar Harhoff & Nandan Rao & David Rosenfeld & Mariagrazia Squicciarini, 2020. "Identifying and measuring developments in artificial intelligence: Making the impossible possible," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2020/05, OECD Publishing.
    49. Ballestar, María Teresa & Díaz-Chao, Ángel & Sainz, Jorge & Torrent-Sellens, Joan, 2020. "Knowledge, robots and productivity in SMEs: Explaining the second digital wave," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 119-131.
    50. Robert Inklaar & Mary O'Mahony & Marcel Timmer, 2005. "ICT AND EUROPE's PRODUCTIVITY PERFORMANCE: INDUSTRY‐LEVEL GROWTH ACCOUNT COMPARISONS WITH THE UNITED STATES," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(4), pages 505-536, December.
    51. Watanabe, Chihiro & Naveed, Kashif & Tou, Yuji & Neittaanmäki, Pekka, 2018. "Measuring GDP in the digital economy: Increasing dependence on uncaptured GDP," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 226-240.
    52. Alessandro Dalla Benetta & Maciej Sobolewski & Daniel Nepelski, 2021. "AI Watch: 2020 EU AI investments," JRC Research Reports JRC126477, Joint Research Centre.
    53. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    54. Venturini, Francesco, 2022. "Intelligent technologies and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 220-243.
    55. René A. Belderbos & Michał Kazimierczak & Micheline Goedhuys, 2022. "Trademarks, patents and the appropriation strategies of incumbents: the scope of new firm formation in European regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(2), pages 210-226, February.
    56. Gordon, Robert J., 2018. "Why Has Economic Growth Slowed When Innovation Appears To Be Accelerating?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    57. Bart van Ark & Klaas de Vries & Abdul Erumban, 2019. "Productivity & Innovation Competencies in the Midst of the Digital Transformation Age: A EU-US Comparison," European Economy - Discussion Papers 119, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Almeida, Derick & Naudé, Wim & Sequeira, Tiago Neves, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and the Discovery of New Ideas: Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?," IZA Discussion Papers 16766, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:gdk:wpaper:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:gdk:wpaper:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Stefan Schweikl & Robert Obermaier, 2020. "Lessons from three decades of IT productivity research: towards a better understanding of IT-induced productivity effects," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 461-507, November.
    4. Czarnitzki, Dirk & Fernández, Gastón P. & Rammer, Christian, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and firm-level productivity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 188-205.
    5. Young Eun Kim & Norman V. Loayza, 2019. "Productivity Growth: Patterns and Determinants across the World," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 36-93.
    6. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ian Goldin & Pantelis Koutroumpis & François Lafond & Julian Winkler, 2024. "Why Is Productivity Slowing Down?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 196-268, March.
    8. Gilbert Cette & Aurélien Devillard & Vincenzo Spiezia, 2022. "Growth Factors in Developed Countries: A 1960–2019 Growth Accounting Decomposition," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 159-185, June.
    9. Venturini, Francesco, 2022. "Intelligent technologies and productivity spillovers: Evidence from the Fourth Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 220-243.
    10. Nils Grashof & Alexander Kopka, 2023. "Widening or closing the gap? The relationship between artificial intelligence, firm-level productivity and regional clusters," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2304, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    11. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    12. Giacomo Damioli & Vincent Van Roy & Daniel Vertesy, 2021. "The impact of artificial intelligence on labor productivity," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, March.
    13. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    14. Liu, Liang & Yang, Kun & Fujii, Hidemichi & Liu, Jun, 2021. "Artificial intelligence and energy intensity in China’s industrial sector: Effect and transmission channel," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 276-293.
    15. Shahnazi, Rouhollah, 2021. "Do information and communications technology spillovers affect labor productivity?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 342-359.
    16. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    17. Miyagawa, Tsutomu & Tonogi, Konomi & Ishikawa, Takayuki, 2021. "Does the productivity J-curve exist in Japan?-Empirical studies based on the multiple q theory," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    19. Georges Daw, 2022. "Determinants of Wealth Disparities in the EU: A Multi-scale Development Accounting Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 211-254, June.
    20. Gordon, Robert J. & Sayed, Hassan, 2020. "Transatlantic Technologies: The Role of ICT in the Evolution of U.S. and European Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    22. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological innovation; Productivity paradox; Productivity growth; Artificial intelligence; Patents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:techno:v:125:y:2023:i:c:s0166497223000755. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01664972 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.