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Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?

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  • Crafts, Nicholas

    (University of Warwick)

  • Mills, Terence C.

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract

We estimate trend UK labour productivity growth using a Hodrick-Prescott filter method. We use the results to compare downturns where the economy fell below its pre-existing trend. We find that the current productivity slowdown has resulted in productivity being 19.7% below the pre-2008 trend path in 2018. This is nearly double the previous worst productivity shortfall ten years after the start of a downturn. On this criterion the slowdown is unprecedented in the last 250 years. We conjecture that this reflects a combination of adverse circumstances, namely, a financial crisis, a weakening impact of ICT and impending Brexit.

Suggested Citation

  • Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2019. "Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 429, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:429
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Jaehan & DeStefano, Timothy & Kim, Hanhin & Kim, Inchul & Paik, Jin Hyun, 2023. "What's driving the diffusion of next-generation digital technologies?," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    2. Diane Coyle & John McHale & Ioannis Bournakis & Jen-Chung Mei, 2023. "Recent Trends in Firm-Level Total Factor Productivity in the United Kingdom: New Measures, New Puzzles," Working Papers 036, The Productivity Institute.
    3. Diane Coyle & Jen‐Chung Mei, 2023. "Diagnosing the UK productivity slowdown: which sectors matter and why?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 813-850, July.
    4. Ajayi, V. & Pollitt, M .G., 2022. "Green growth and net zero policy in the UK: some conceptual and measurement issues," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2255, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Daping Zhao & Sajid Anwar & W. Robert J. Alexander, 2022. "Sources of economic slowdown: A simultaneous equations approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2549-2565, April.
    6. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Ian R Gordon & Ioannis Laliotis, 2021. "Uneven geographies of economic recovery and the stickiness of individual displacement," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(1), pages 157-178.
    7. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "What can we learn from the United Kingdom’s post‐1945 economic reforms?," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 354-376, October.
    8. Stephen Broadberry, 2022. "British economic growth and development," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Edward L. Knudsen, 2023. "Stable or stagnant? Political economy and governance in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany since 2000," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(S4), pages 90-103, October.
    10. Parteka, Aleksandra & Kordalska, Aleksandra, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and productivity: global evidence from AI patent and bibliometric data," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. repec:gdk:wpaper:67 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Victor Ajai & Karim Anaya & Geoffroy Dolphin & Michael Pollitt, 2022. "Do climate policies explain the productivity puzzle? Evidence from the Energy Sector," Working Papers 016, The Productivity Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; financial crisis; Hodrick-Prescott filter; ICT; productivity slowdown JEL Classification: C22; N13; N14; O47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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