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Mood impacts on probability weighting functions: "Large-gamble" evidence

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  • Kliger, Doron
  • Levy, Ori

Abstract

This paper integrates considerations of mood into non-expected utility theories and extends the existing literature on how mood influences peoples' decisions and choices. An important element in many non-expected utility theories is the probability weighting function (PWF), that nonlinearly weights physical probabilities. Using US market price data, we attempt to establish an empirical relation between investors' mood and these PWFs. To proxy investors' mood, we rely on an established medical phenomenon, seasonal affective disorder, a source of depression caused by the scarcity of daylight time during fall and winter, as well as on a measure of cloudiness. We find statistical evidence indicating that bad mood causes investors to systematically distort their PWFs.

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  • Kliger, Doron & Levy, Ori, 2008. "Mood impacts on probability weighting functions: "Large-gamble" evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1397-1411, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:37:y:2008:i:4:p:1397-1411
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    2. Guo, Mengmeng & Wei, Mengxin & Huang, Lin, 2022. "Does air pollution influence investor trading behavior? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Dimitrios Kourtidis & Željko Šević & Prodromos Chatzoglou, 2016. "Mood and stock returns: evidence from Greece," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 242-258, May.
    4. Kliger, Doron & Kudryavtsev, Andrey, 2013. "Volatility expectations and the reaction to analyst recommendations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-6.
    5. Freudenreich, Hanna & Musshoff, Oliver & Wiercinski, Ben, 2017. "The Relationship between Farmers' Shock Experiences and their Uncertainty Preferences - Experimental Evidence from Mexico," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 256212, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    6. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan & Bahattin Hamarat, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(16), pages 161-175, April.
    7. Lucy F. Ackert & Richard Deaves & Jennifer Miele & Quang Nguyen, 2020. "Are Time Preference and Risk Preference Associated with Cognitive Intelligence and Emotional Intelligence?," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 136-156, April.
    8. Gelman, Sergey & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "Time-Induced Stress Effect on Financial Decision Making in Real Markets: The Case of Traffic Congestion," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145915, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    10. Fehr-Duda, Helga & Epper, Thomas & Bruhin, Adrian & Schubert, Renate, 2011. "Risk and rationality: The effects of mood and decision rules on probability weighting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 14-24, April.
    11. Freudenreich, Hanna & Musshoff, Oliver, 2022. "Experience of losses and aversion to uncertainty - experimental evidence from farmers in Mexico," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    12. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan, PhD, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 184-197, November.
    13. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
    14. Lepori, Gabriele M., 2016. "Air pollution and stock returns: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 25-42.
    15. Steven D. Dolvin & Stephanie A. Fernhaber, 2014. "Seasonal Affective Disorder and IPO underpricing: implications for young firms," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-68, January.
    16. Kliger, Doron & Raviv, Yaron & Rosett, Joshua & Bayer, Thomas & Page, John, 2015. "Seasonal affective disorder and seasoned art auction prices: New evidence from old masters," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 74-84.
    17. Emmanuel Jurczenko & Bertrand Maillet & Paul Merlin, 2008. "Efficient Frontier for Robust Higher-order Moment Portfolio Selection," Post-Print halshs-00336475, HAL.
    18. Tihana Škrinjarić & Branka Marasović & Boško Šego, 2021. "Does the Croatian Stock Market Have Seasonal Affective Disorder?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, February.
    19. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2018. "Testing for Seasonal Affective Disorder on Selected CEE and SEE Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, December.
    20. Kirk, Colleen P. & McSherry, Bernard & Swain, Scott D., 2015. "Investing the self: The effect of nonconscious goals on investor psychological ownership and word-of-mouth intentions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 186-194.

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