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Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies

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  • Tuna, Gulcay
  • Almahadin, Hamed Ahmad

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate, interest rate volatility, and banking sector development in 12 emerging market economies located around the world. For this purpose, panel data analysis was conducted using annual data from 1980 to 2014. In parallel to the financial development literature, which asserts that banking sector development, as a broad and complex concept, cannot be measured by a single indicator, this study adopts a set of measures of banking sector development. The empirical results reveal that while interest rate has a positive impact on all banking sector indicators, this relationship weakens at higher interest levels, showing a concave relationship between interest rate and banking sector development. In addition, the empirical results provide evidence that interest rate fluctuations have a negative impact on most banking sector development (BSD) indicators, suggesting that the banking sectors of emerging countries are vulnerable to interest rate risks. Furthermore, all measures of the banking sector indicators are positively affected by economic growth rates, while this association weakens at higher levels of income, confirming a nonlinear relationship. Thus, the results have important implications for policymakers in improving the banking system and promoting the economic growth of these emerging economies.

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  • Tuna, Gulcay & Almahadin, Hamed Ahmad, 2021. "Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s027553192100057x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101436
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking sector development; Interest rate volatility; Nonlinear relationship; Panel data analysis; Emerging market economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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