IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v57y2021ics0275531921000210.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19, stock market and sectoral contagion in US: a time-frequency analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Matos, Paulo
  • Costa, Antonio
  • da Silva, Cristiano

Abstract

We assess the conditional relationship in the time-frequency domain between the return on S&P 500 and confirmed cases and deaths by COVID-19 in Hubei, China, countries with record deaths and the world, for the period from January 29 to June 30, 2020. Methodologically, we follow Aguiar-Conraria et al. (2018), by using partial coherencies, phase-difference diagrams, and gains. We also perform a parametric test for Granger-causality in quantiles developed by Troster (2018). We find that short-term cycles of deaths in Italy in the first days of March, and soon afterwards, cycles of deaths in the world are able to lead out-of-phase US stock market. We find that low frequency cycles of the US market index in the first half of April are useful to anticipate in an anti-phasic way the cycles of deaths in the US. We also explore sectoral contagion, based on dissimilarities, Granger causality and partial coherencies between S&P sector indices. Our findings, such as the strategic role of the energy sector, which first reacted to the pandemic, or the evidence about predictability of the Telecom cycles, are useful to tell the history of the pass-through of this recent health crises across the sectors of the US economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Matos, Paulo & Costa, Antonio & da Silva, Cristiano, 2021. "COVID-19, stock market and sectoral contagion in US: a time-frequency analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921000210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531921000210
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leslie, Emily & Wilson, Riley, 2020. "Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2018. "Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-137.
    3. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    4. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    5. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Molnár, Peter, 2020. "Fear of the coronavirus and the stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    6. Kaplan, Greg & Mitman, Kurt & Violante, Giovanni L., 2020. "Non-durable consumption and housing net worth in the Great Recession: Evidence from easily accessible data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    7. Sakov, Anat & Bickel, Peter J., 2000. "An Edgeworth expansion for the m out of n bootstrapped median," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 217-223, September.
    8. Wu, Kai & Zhu, Jingran & Xu, Mingli & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Can crude oil drive the co-movement in the international stock market? Evidence from partial wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ding, Wenzhi & Levine, Ross & Lin, Chen & Xie, Wensi, 2021. "Corporate immunity to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 802-830.
    11. Donia Aloui & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi & Rafla Hchaichi, 2020. "COVID 19's impact on crude oil and natural gas S&P GS Indexes," Working Papers halshs-02613280, HAL.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    13. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Gelos, Gaston & Melgar, Natalia, 2018. "Country transparency and the global transmission of financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 56-72.
    14. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    15. Bera, Anil Kumar & Uyar, Umut & Kangalli Uyar, Sinem Guler, 2020. "Analysis of the five-factor asset pricing model with wavelet multiscaling approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 414-423.
    16. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic and health care aspects of the coronavirus epidemic: EU, US and global perspectives," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 295-362, May.
    17. Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "Macroeconomic Aspects of the Coronavirus Epidemic: Eurozone, EU, US and Chinese Perspectives," EIIW Discussion paper disbei270, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    18. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Victor Troster, 2018. "Testing for Granger-causality in quantiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 850-866, September.
    21. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Wenwen & Cao, Shuo & Zhang, Xuan & Qu, Xuefeng, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock market performance: Evidence from the RCEP countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 717-735.
    2. Soni, Rajat Kumar & Nandan, Tanuj, 2022. "Modeling Covid-19 contagious effect between asset markets and commodity futures in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Belhassine, Olfa & Karamti, Chiraz, 2021. "Contagion and portfolio management in times of COVID-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 73-86.
    4. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Quiñoá-Piñeiro, Lara & Pérez-Pico, Ada M., 2022. "US biopharmaceutical companies' stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the concept of the ‘paradoxical spiral’ from a sustainability perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    5. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Marcos Albuquerque Junior & José António Filipe & Paulo de Melo Jorge Neto & Cristiano da Costa da Silva, 2021. "Assessing the Time-Frequency Co-Movements among the Five Largest Engineering Consulting Companies: A Wavelet-Base Metrics of Contagion and VaR Ratio," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Gupta, Somya & Ghardallou, Wafa & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Sahu, Ganesh P., 2022. "Artificial intelligence adoption in the insurance industry: Evidence using the technology–organization–environment framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Costa, Antonio & da Silva, Cristiano & Matos, Paulo, 2022. "The Brazilian financial market reaction to COVID-19: A wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 13-29.
    9. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Tabash, Mosab I. & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2022. "Are Islamic banks more resilient to the crises vis-à-vis conventional banks? Evidence from the COVID-19 shock using stock market data," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Zhang, Jinhua & Mao, Rui & Wang, Jieyu & Xing, Mengying, 2021. "The way back home: Trading behaviours of foreign institutional investors in China amid the COVID-19 pandemic," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. shear, Falik & Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2022. "The performance of Islamic versus conventional stocks during the COVID-19 shock: Evidence from firm-level data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    12. Dmitry A. Endovitsky & Viacheslav V. Korotkikh & Denis A. Khripushin, 2021. "Equity Risk and Return across Hidden Market Regimes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-21, October.
    13. Costa, Antonio & Matos, Paulo & da Silva, Cristiano, 2022. "Sectoral connectedness: New evidence from US stock market during COVID-19 pandemics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tong, Yuan & Wan, Ning & Dai, Xingyu & Bi, Xiaoyi & Wang, Qunwei, 2022. "China's energy stock market jumps: To what extent does the COVID-19 pandemic play a part?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Costa, Antonio & da Silva, Cristiano & Matos, Paulo, 2022. "The Brazilian financial market reaction to COVID-19: A wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 13-29.
    4. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark, 2023. "Heterogenous responses of stock markets to covid related news and sentiments: Evidence from the 1st year of pandemic," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 68-85.
    5. Iqbal, Najaf & Fareed, Zeeshan & Wan, Guangcai & Shahzad, Farrukh, 2021. "Asymmetric nexus between COVID-19 outbreak in the world and cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Mahi, Masnun & Hassan, M. Kabir & Bhuiyan, Abul Bashar, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock markets: Conventional vs. Islamic indices using wavelet-based multi-timescales analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    8. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Gubareva, Mariya & Tran, Dang Khoa & Teplova, Tamara, 2021. "Impact of the Covid-19 induced panic on the Environmental, Social and Governance leaders equity volatility: A time-frequency analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. Abuzayed, Bana & Bouri, Elie & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Jalkh, Naji, 2021. "Systemic risk spillover across global and country stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 180-197.
    11. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Liu, Zhifeng & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Dai, Peng-Fei, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "YOLO trading: Riding with the herd during the GameStop episode," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    14. David, S.A. & Inácio Jr., C.M.C. & Tenreiro Machado, José A., 2021. "The recovery of global stock markets indices after impacts due to pandemics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    15. Emre Cevik & Buket Kirci Altinkeski & Emrah Ismail Cevik & Sel Dibooglu, 2022. "Investor sentiments and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-34, December.
    16. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter, 2020. "Stock market oscillations during the corona crash: The role of fear and uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    17. Costa, Antonio & Matos, Paulo & da Silva, Cristiano, 2022. "Sectoral connectedness: New evidence from US stock market during COVID-19 pandemics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    18. Niculaescu, Corina E. & Sangiorgi, Ivan & Bell, Adrian R., 2023. "Does personal experience with COVID-19 impact investment decisions? Evidence from a survey of US retail investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Bai, Chenjiang & Duan, Yuejiao & Liu, Congya & Qiu, Leiju, 2022. "International taxation sentiment and COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    20. Ozkan, Oktay, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on stock market efficiency: Evidence from developed countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coronavirus; Lead-lag conditional relationships; Time-frequency domains; Quantile Granger causality; Sectoral pass-through in US;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921000210. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.