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Contagion and portfolio management in times of COVID-19

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  • Belhassine, Olfa
  • Karamti, Chiraz

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on the interconnectedness between the Chinese stock market and major financial and commodity markets—gold, silver, Bitcoin, WTI, S&P 500, and Euro STOXX 50—and analyze the portfolio design implications. Using daily data from 2018 to 2021, we first apply the wavelet power spectrum (WPS) to visualize volatility shifts. In contrast to previous research, we empirically identify the precise COVID-19 outbreak dates for each market using the Perron (1997) breakpoint test. Finally, we employ the bivariate DCC-GARCH model to analyze the connectedness between markets. The findings reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic caused volatility shifts of different intensities for all of the studied markets. Moreover, each return series exhibits one break date, which is specific to each market and corresponds to a distinct COVID-19-related event. Correlations, hedge ratios, and optimal portfolio weights changed significantly after the COVID-19 outbreak. There is evidence of contagion effects between the Chinese stock market and S&P 500, Euro STOXX 50, gold, and silver. Interestingly, the latter two assets lost their safe haven property with SSE. However, WTI and Bitcoin act as safe havens against SSE risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Belhassine, Olfa & Karamti, Chiraz, 2021. "Contagion and portfolio management in times of COVID-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 73-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:73-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Soni, Rajat Kumar & Nandan, Tanuj, 2022. "Modeling Covid-19 contagious effect between asset markets and commodity futures in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Del Lo, Gaye & Yuni, Denis, 2023. "Global commodity and equity markets spillovers to Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    3. Costa, Antonio & da Silva, Cristiano & Matos, Paulo, 2022. "The Brazilian financial market reaction to COVID-19: A wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 13-29.
    4. Okoroafor, Ugochi C. & Leirvik, Thomas, 2023. "Time-varying market efficiency of safe-haven assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Ziyao Wang & Yufei Xia & Yating Fu & Ying Liu, 2023. "Volatility Spillover Dynamics and Determinants between FinTech and Traditional Financial Industry: Evidence from China," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    6. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-58, December.
    7. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; China; Dynamic conditional correlations; Hedge ratios; Volatility; Break dates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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