IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v46y2018icp430-443.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks

Author

Listed:
  • Gozgor, Giray

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of the domestic credits in the panel data of 61 developing economies (22 emerging markets and 39 non-emerging developing economies) for the period from 1984 to 2016. The paper finds that the income and the money supply are positively associated with the domestic credits. There also are the negative effects of the current account balance and the interest rate differences on the domestic credits. Further analyses for the subcomponents of the overall political risk measures indicate that the better socioeconomic conditions (i.e. the less poverty, the lower unemployment, and the higher consumer confidence) and the lower corruption positively affect the domestic credits.

Suggested Citation

  • Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 430-443.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:430-443
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027553191730675X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2018.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit at times of stress: Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis," BIS Working Papers 370, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Soedarmono, Wahyoe & Sitorus, Djauhari & Tarazi, Amine, 2017. "Abnormal loan growth, credit information sharing and systemic risk in Asian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1208-1218.
    4. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    6. Giray Gözgör & Muhlis Can, 2017. "Causal Linkages among the Product Diversification of Exports, Economic Globalization and Economic Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 888-908, August.
    7. Haelim Park Anderson & Claudia Ruiz†Ortega & Thierry Tressel, 2017. "Determinants of long†versus short†term bank credit in EU countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 274-295, October.
    8. Ari Aisen & Michael Franken, 2015. "Bank credit during the 2008 financial crisis: a cross-country comparison," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(1), pages 26-49, April.
    9. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Law, endowments, and finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 137-181, November.
    10. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    11. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    12. Nicolas E. Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart & Esteban R. Vesperoni, 2014. "Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit Booms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 415-430, August.
    13. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    14. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    15. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    16. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "Monetary policy flexibility, risk management, and financial disruptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 242-246, June.
    17. Giray Gozgor & Muhlis Can, 2016. "Effects of the product diversification of exports on income at different stages of economic development," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-235, August.
    18. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    19. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    20. Dimic, Nebojsa & Orlov, Vitaly & Piljak, Vanja, 2015. "The political risk factor in emerging, frontier, and developed stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 239-245.
    21. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven & Hui Tong, 2016. "Credit booms and macrofinancial stability," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(86), pages 299-355.
    22. Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit in times of stress: lessons from Latin America," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    23. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    24. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    25. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    26. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    27. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    28. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    29. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    30. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    31. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.
    32. Elod Takats, 2010. "Was it credit supply? Cross-border bank lending to emerging market economies during the financial crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    33. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    34. Julián A. Caballero, 2016. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 281-316, March.
    35. Elekdag, Selim & Han, Fei, 2015. "What drives credit growth in emerging Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    36. Kusi, Baah Aye & Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Ansah-Adu, Kwadjo & Gyeke-Dako, Agyapomaa, 2017. "Bank credit risk and credit information sharing in Africa: Does credit information sharing institutions and context matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1123-1136.
    37. Rios-Morales, Ruth & Gamberger, Dragan & Smuc, Tom & Azuaje, Francisco, 2009. "Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 144-156, June.
    38. Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Ms. Oana Luca, 2012. "Capital Inflows, Financial Development, and Domestic Investment: Determinants and Inter-Relationships," IMF Working Papers 2012/120, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Civilize, Sireethorn & Wongchoti, Udomsak & Young, Martin, 2015. "Military regimes and stock market performance," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 76-95.
    40. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    41. Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
    42. Samarina, Anna & Bezemer, Dirk, 2016. "Do capital flows change domestic credit allocation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 98-121.
    43. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    44. Vahram Stepanyan & Kai Guo, 2011. "Determinants of Bank Credit in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2011/051, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Does political risk matter for gold market fluctuations? A structural VAR analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Lang, Qiaoqi & Ma, Feng & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The interaction of climate risk and bank liquidity: An emerging market perspective for transitions to low carbon energy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Xu, Ruihui & Zhang, Xuliang & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Yan, Cheng, 2023. "Investor flow-chasing and price–performance puzzle: Evidence from global infrastructure funds," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    5. Bahoo, Salman, 2020. "Corruption in banks: A bibliometric review and agenda," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    6. Dimitrios Anastasiou & Zacharias Bragoudakis & Ioannis Malandrakis, 2019. "Non-performing loans, governance indicators and systemic liquidity risk: evidence from Greece," Working Papers 260, Bank of Greece.
    7. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yousaf, Imran & Karim, Sitara & Yarovaya, Larisa & Ali, Shoaib, 2023. "Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    9. Stef, Nicolae & Dimelis, Sophia, 2020. "Bankruptcy regime and the banking system," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 480-495.
    10. Ahmed H. Elsayed & Mohamad Husam Helmi, 2021. "Volatility transmission and spillover dynamics across financial markets: the role of geopolitical risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 305(1), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Tabash, Mosab I. & Farooq, Umar & Ashfaq, Khurram & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and financing structure: A new panel data evidence from selected Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Lending," Working Papers hal-01158241, HAL.
    4. Albaity, Mohamed & Noman, Abu Hanifa Md. & Saadaoui Mallek, Ray & Al-Shboul, Mohammad, 2022. "Cyclicality of bank credit growth: Conventional vs Islamic banks in the GCC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    5. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    6. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2020. "Riding the Wave of Credit: Are Longer Expansions Really a Bad Omen?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 729-751, September.
    7. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    8. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Effiong, Ekpeno, 2015. "Financial Development, Institutions and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 66085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    11. Emna Trabelsi, 2019. "Do independence and transparency matter for bank development? A new lookup on emerging and developing countries," Post-Print hal-02162780, HAL.
    12. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
    13. Patty Duijm, 2022. "Foreign‐funded credit: Funding the credit cycle?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 167-182, August.
    14. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Sana Azzabi, 2014. "Intégration financière internationale et croissance économique dans les pays émergents et en développement : le canal du développement financier," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(3), pages 27-68.
    15. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Batten, Jonathan A. & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray, 2023. "Does globalization affect credit market controls?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-43.
    17. Bezemer, Dirk & Zhang, L, 2014. "From boom to bust in the credit cycle," Research Report 14025-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    18. KOUAKOU, Dorgyles C.M. & YEO, Kolotioloma I.H., 2023. "Can innovation reduce the size of the informal economy? Econometric evidence from 138 countries," MPRA Paper 119264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2021. "The intertwining of credit and banking fragility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 459-475, January.
    20. Mahir Binici & Aytül Ganioglu, 2021. "Net external position, financial development, and banking crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1251, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit growth; Emerging markets; Political risks; Sustainable development of the financial sector; Panel data estimation techniques;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:46:y:2018:i:c:p:430-443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.