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Optimal commodity asset allocation with a coherent market risk modeling

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  • Al Janabi, Mazin A.M.
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    Abstract

    This paper fills a fundamental gap in commodity price risk management and optimal portfolio selection literatures by contributing a thorough reflection on trading risk modeling with a dynamic asset allocation process and under the supposition of illiquid and adverse market settings. This paper analyzes, from a portfolio managers' perspective, the performance of liquidity adjusted risk modeling in obtaining efficient and coherent investable commodity portfolios under normal and adverse market conditions. As such, the author argues that liquidity risk associated with the uncertainty of liquidating multiple commodity assets over given holding periods is a key factor in formalizing and measuring overall trading risk and is thus an important component to model, particularly in the wake of the repercussions of the recent 2008 financial crisis. To this end, this article proposes a practical technique for the quantification of liquidity trading risk for large portfolios that consist of multiple commodity assets and whereby the holding periods are adjusted according to the specific needs of each trading portfolio. Specifically, the paper proposes a robust technique to commodity optimal portfolio selection, in a liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk (L-VaR) framework, and particularly from the perspective of large portfolios that have both long and short positions or portfolios that consist of merely pure long trading positions. Moreover, in this paper, the author develops a portfolio selection model and an optimization-algorithm which allocates commodity assets by minimizing the L-VaR subject to applying credible operational and financial constraints based on fundamental asset management considerations. The empirical optimization results indicate that this alternate L-VaR technique can be regarded as a robust portfolio management tool and can have many uses and applications in real-world asset management practices and predominantly for fund managers with large commodity portfolios.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Review of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 131-140

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:21:y:2012:i:3:p:131-140

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620170

    Related research

    Keywords: Commodity; Financial crisis; Financial engineering; Liquidity risk; Portfolio management;

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    References

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    1. William W. Wilson & William E. Nganje & Cullen R. Hawes, 2007. "Value-at-Risk in Bakery Procurement," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 581-595.
    2. Timotheos Angelidis & Alexandros Benos, 2006. "Liquidity adjusted value-at-risk based on the components of the bid-ask spread," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 835-851.
    3. GIOT, Pierre & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2003. "Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2003028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Mark R. Manfredo & Raymond M. Leuthold, 2001. "Market risk and the cattle feeding margin: An application of Value-at-Risk," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 333-353.
    5. Satyanarayan, Sudhakar & Varangis, Panos & DEC, 1994. "An efficient frontier for international portfolios with commodity assets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1266, The World Bank.
    6. Best, Michael J & Grauer, Robert R, 1991. "On the Sensitivity of Mean-Variance-Efficient Portfolios to Changes in Asset Means: Some Analytical and Computational Results," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 315-42.
    7. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "Bayesian and CAPM estimators of the means: Implications for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 717-727, June.
    8. Ben White & P. J. Dawson, 2005. "Measuring Price Risk on UK Arable Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 239-252.
    9. Rafal Weron, 2000. "Energy price risk management," HSC Research Reports HSC/00/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
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    Cited by:
    1. Wilford, D. Sykes, 2012. "True Markowitz or assumptions we break and why it matters," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 93-101.

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