IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v76y2021icp357-375.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of export dynamics on trade balance in emerging and developed countries: An evaluation with middle income trap perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem
  • Sancar, Canan

Abstract

In this study, it was analyzed whether the export dynamics affected net exports in fourteen emerging countries and eight developed countries between the years of 1995–2019. Export sophistication, export product diversification, export market diversification, export product concentration, export market concentration, and real effective exchange rate were used as the proxy of export dynamics. Panel data methods that take into account cross-section dependency and structural breaks were used for the analysis. As a result of the study, in developed countries, it was concluded that export sophistication, export product concentration, and export market diversification positively affected the net export, and the real effective exchange rate negatively affected the net export. For the emerging countries, it was concluded that export market concentration and real exchange rate negatively affected the net exports. Also, in emerging countries, it was found that export sophistication and export product diversification do not have any impact on net exports since export sophistication and export product diversification are not an adequately high level compared to developed countries for increasing the net export. The fact that in these countries the proportion of high-tech product exports are low in total exports and the product range in exports are not wide cause these indexes to be low. This situation poses a significant risk in terms of falling into the middle-income trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem & Sancar, Canan, 2021. "The impact of export dynamics on trade balance in emerging and developed countries: An evaluation with middle income trap perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 357-375.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:76:y:2021:i:c:p:357-375
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2021.06.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056021001404
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2021.06.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    3. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, February.
    4. Zarinah Hamid, 2010. "Concentration of exports and patterns of trade:a time-series evidence of Malaysia," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(2), pages 255-270, January-M.
    5. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2011. "Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 590-605, May.
    6. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    7. Yikai Wang, 2014. "Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism," 2014 Meeting Papers 202, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Gallant, A. Ronald & Souza, Geraldo, 1991. "On the asymptotic normality of Fourier flexible form estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 329-353, December.
    9. Keun Lee & Shi Li, 2014. "Possibility of a Middle Income Trap in China: Assessment in Terms of the Literature on Innovation, Big Business and Inequality," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 9(3), pages 370-397, September.
    10. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    11. Amsler, Christine & Lee, Junsoo, 1995. "An LM Test for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Structural Change," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 359-368, February.
    12. Nazlioglu, Saban & Karul, Cagin, 2017. "A panel stationarity test with gradual structural shifts: Re-investigate the international commodity price shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 181-192.
    13. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2014. "Growth slowdowns redux," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 65-84.
    15. Guanzhong James Wen & Jinwu Xiong, 2014. "The Hukou and Land Tenure Systems as Two Middle Income Traps¡ªThe Case of Modern China," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 9(3), pages 438-459, September.
    16. Fernando Gabriel Im & David Rosenblatt, 2015. "Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-39.
    17. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Ispir, M. Serdar & Yetkiner, Hakan, 2017. "Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 290-306.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    19. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 2," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 307, Asian Development Bank.
    20. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap," NBER Working Papers 18673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Productivity, Economic Growth and the Middle Income Trap: Implications for China," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 9(3), pages 460-483, September.
    22. Fang Cai, 2012. "Is There a “Middle‐income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 49-61, January.
    23. Tran, Thi Anh-Dao & Phi, Minh Hong & Thai, Long, 2020. "Global value chains and the missing link between exchange rates and export diversification," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 194-205.
    24. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    25. Lennart Petersson, 2005. "Export Diversification And Intra‐Industry Trade In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 785-802, December.
    26. Louis Sitsofe Hodey & Abena D. Oduro & Bernardin Senadza, 2015. "Export Diversification and Economic Growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Development, African Finance and Economic Association (AFEA), vol. 17(2), pages 83-103.
    27. Jesus Felipe & Arnelyn Abdon & Utsav Kumar, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_715, Levy Economics Institute.
    28. XU, Bin & LU, Jiangyong, 2009. "Foreign direct investment, processing trade, and the sophistication of China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 425-439, September.
    29. Simon Kuznets, 1946. "National Income: A Summary of Findings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn46-2, March.
    30. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano, 2015. "Middle-income growth traps," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 641-660.
    31. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.
    32. Hinlo, Jennifer E. & Arranguez, Grace Ivy S., 2017. "Export Geographical Diversification and Economic Growth Among ASEAN Countries," MPRA Paper 81333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Wing Thye Woo, 2012. "China meets the middle-income trap: the large potholes in the road to catching-up," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 313-336, August.
    34. Simon Kuznets, 1946. "Introduction, National Income: A Summary of Findings," NBER Chapters, in: National Income: A Summary of Findings, pages 1-2, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Gallant, A. Ronald, 1981. "On the bias in flexible functional forms and an essentially unbiased form : The fourier flexible form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 211-245, February.
    36. Wim Naudé & Riaan Rossouw, 2008. "Export Diversification and Specialization in South Africa: Extent and Impact," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-93, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    37. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798, December.
    38. Robert J. Barro, 2016. "Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied Especially to China," NBER Working Papers 21872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    40. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina, 2019. "Trade sophistication in developing countries: Does export destination matter?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 39-51.
    41. Nahanga Verter & Věra Bečvářová, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 691-700.
    42. Enders, Walter & Lee, Junsoo, 2012. "The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 196-199.
    43. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    44. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    45. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    46. Zhizhong Yao, 2015. "How Can China Avoid the Middle Income Trap?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(5), pages 26-42, September.
    47. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 1," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 306, Asian Development Bank.
    48. Guanghua Wan & Peter J. Morgan & Robert J. Barro, 2016. "Economic Growth and Convergence, Applied to China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(5), pages 5-19, September.
    49. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    50. Thi Anh-Dao Tran & Minh Hong Phi & Long Thai, 2020. "Global value chains and the missing link between exchange rates and export diversification," Post-Print halshs-02972341, HAL.
    51. Schmidt, Peter & Phillips, C B Peter, 1992. "LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 257-287, August.
    52. Chien-Hui Lee & Bwo-Nung Huang, 2002. "The Relationship Between Exports And Economic Growth In East Asian Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 45-68, December.
    53. Westerlund, Joakim, 2006. "Testing for panel cointegration with a level break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-33, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Zeshan, 2023. "Trade, Industry and Competition in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2023:15, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. Hegerty Scott W., 2022. "Time-series dynamics of Baltic trade flows: Structural breaks, regime shifts, and exchange-rate volatility," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 44(1), pages 96-118, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    3. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    4. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
    5. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    6. Prajapati Vishwajeet Singh & Priya Ashutosh & Pradhan Vikas, 2023. "The middle-income trap – a problem of definition and empirical research," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(3), pages 459-472, September.
    7. Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
    8. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Allaoui, Elhassen & Tidjani, Chemseddine & Lacheheb, Miloud, 2015. "“Middle Income Trap”; the position of Algerian economy: a comparative analysis overview," MPRA Paper 91745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2019.
    10. Cyn‐Young Park & Rogelio V. Mercado, 2020. "Economic Convergence, Capital Accumulation, and Income Traps: Empirical Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(1), pages 26-58, March.
    11. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 13/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    12. David Bulman & Maya Eden & Ha Nguyen, 2017. "Transitioning from low-income growth to high-income growth: is there a middle-income trap?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 5-28, January.
    13. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    14. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants at More Subtle Stages of Development: The Example of the Middle-Income Trap Phenomenon," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 11/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    15. Prajapati, Vishwajeet Singh & Priya, Ashutosh & Pradhan, Vikas, 2023. "The Middle-Income Trap – A Problem Of Definition And Empirical Research," Economic and Regional Studies (Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne), John Paul II University of Applied Sciences in Biala Podlaska, vol. 16(3), September.
    16. Vivarelli, Marco, 2018. "Globalisation, structural change and innovation in emerging economies: The impact on employment and skills," MERIT Working Papers 2018-037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2018. "Avoiding the middle-income trap: Korean lessons for China?," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 14/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    18. Charles Gore, 2017. "Late industrialisation, urbanisation and the middle-income trap: an analytical approach and the case of Vietnam," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 10(1), pages 35-57.
    19. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "The Deep Determinants of the Middle-Income Trap," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 10/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.
    20. Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B., 2021. "Convergence among themselves and Middle-income trap of South-East Asian Nations: Findings from a New approach," MPRA Paper 109372, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export dynamics; Middle income trap; Panel data analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:76:y:2021:i:c:p:357-375. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.