The Relationship Between Exports And Economic Growth In East Asian Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Approach
AbstractDuring the process of economic development, different economic policies are adopted in accordance with particular circumstances. Therefore, conventional methods of time-series analysis may give misleading results if the problems associated with regime switches are not considered. The relationship between export growth and output growth is explored using a multivariate threshold model with regimes defined by the export-import ratio. In the cases of five countries that are recognized as being outward-oriented, we find that, except for Hong Kong, the relationship whereby exports lead output prevails in at least one regime for each of four of the countries being studied. The regime-based threshold autoregressive model thus appears to possess certain advantages over the more conventional linear autoregressive model.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics in its journal Journal Of Economic Development.
Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Model; Export Growth; Output Growth; Export-import Ratio;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
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- Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
- Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
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- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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