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The Relationship Between Exports And Economic Growth In East Asian Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Approach

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  • Chien-Hui Lee

    ()
    (Department of International Trade, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences)

  • Bwo-Nung Huang

    ()
    (Department of Economics, National Chung-Cheng University)

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    Abstract

    During the process of economic development, different economic policies are adopted in accordance with particular circumstances. Therefore, conventional methods of time-series analysis may give misleading results if the problems associated with regime switches are not considered. The relationship between export growth and output growth is explored using a multivariate threshold model with regimes defined by the export-import ratio. In the cases of five countries that are recognized as being outward-oriented, we find that, except for Hong Kong, the relationship whereby exports lead output prevails in at least one regime for each of four of the countries being studied. The regime-based threshold autoregressive model thus appears to possess certain advantages over the more conventional linear autoregressive model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics in its journal Journal Of Economic Development.

    Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (December)
    Pages: 45-68

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    Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:45-68

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    Related research

    Keywords: Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Model; Export Growth; Output Growth; Export-import Ratio;

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    References

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    1. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    2. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Mohtadi, Hamid & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1991. "Exports, growth and causality in LDCs : A re-examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-415, October.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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