IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v56y2018icp205-217.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investor sentiment extracted from internet stock message boards and IPO puzzles

Author

Listed:
  • Tsukioka, Yasutomo
  • Yanagi, Junya
  • Takada, Teruko

Abstract

High initial returns and long-run underperformance of initial public offerings (IPOs) represent puzzles in corporate finance. We investigate how investor sentiment affects these puzzles. Investor sentiment on each issuing firm's pre-IPO is extracted from Yahoo! Japan Finance message boards using text mining and a support vector machine classification. Message data on 654 Japanese IPOs from 2001 to 2010 are used to measure investor attention and sentiment. We find that high investor attention and bullish investor sentiment positively affect IPO offer prices and initial returns, leading to subsequent price declines. This suggests that excessive investor optimism can partially explain the IPO puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsukioka, Yasutomo & Yanagi, Junya & Takada, Teruko, 2018. "Investor sentiment extracted from internet stock message boards and IPO puzzles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 205-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:205-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056017308171
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2017.10.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Ljungqvist & William J. Wilhelm, 2003. "IPO Pricing in the Dot‐com Bubble," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 723-752, April.
    2. Alexander Ljungqvist & Vikram Nanda & Rajdeep Singh, 2006. "Hot Markets, Investor Sentiment, and IPO Pricing," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1667-1702, July.
    3. Ying Zhang & Peggy Swanson, 2010. "Are day traders bias free?—evidence from internet stock message boards," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(1), pages 96-112, January.
    4. Jay R. Ritter & Ivo Welch, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing, and Allocations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1795-1828, August.
    5. Sanjiv R. Das & Mike Y. Chen, 2007. "Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1375-1388, September.
    6. Chan, Yue-Cheong, 2014. "How does retail sentiment affect IPO returns? Evidence from the internet bubble period," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 235-248.
    7. Hanley, Kathleen Weiss, 1993. "The underpricing of initial public offerings and the partial adjustment phenomenon," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 231-250, October.
    8. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wu, Di, 2013. "Word power: A new approach for content analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 712-729.
    9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    10. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1997. "Detecting long-run abnormal stock returns: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 341-372, March.
    11. Benveniste, Lawrence M. & Spindt, Paul A., 1989. "How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361.
    12. Dorn, Daniel, 2009. "Does Sentiment Drive the Retail Demand for IPOs?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 85-108, February.
    13. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    14. Ritter, Jay R, 1991. "The Long-run Performance of Initial Public Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-27, March.
    15. Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. "Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December.
    16. Franҫois Derrien, 2005. "IPO Pricing in “Hot” Market Conditions: Who Leaves Money on the Table?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 487-521, February.
    17. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R, 1997. "The Operating Performance of Firms Conducting Seasoned Equity Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1823-1850, December.
    18. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    19. Francesca Cornelli & David Goldreich & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and Pre‐IPO Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1187-1216, June.
    20. Richard B. Carter & Frederick H. Dark & Ajai K. Singh, 1998. "Underwriter Reputation, Initial Returns, and the Long-Run Performance of IPO Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 285-311, February.
    21. François Derrien, 2005. "IPO Pricing in 'Hot' Market Conditions: Who Leaves Money on the Table?," Post-Print hal-00480827, HAL.
    22. Werner Antweiler & Murray Z. Frank, 2004. "Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1259-1294, June.
    23. Karatzoglou, Alexandros & Smola, Alexandros & Hornik, Kurt & Zeileis, Achim, 2004. "kernlab - An S4 Package for Kernel Methods in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 11(i09).
    24. Jenkinson, Tim & Ljungqvist, Alexander, 2001. "Going Public: The Theory and Evidence on How Companies Raise Equity Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780198295990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Tao & Zhang, Xueyong, 2022. "Industry-level media tone and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 59-77.
    2. Breitmayer, Bastian & Massari, Filippo & Pelster, Matthias, 2019. "Swarm intelligence? Stock opinions of the crowd and stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 443-464.
    3. Gao, Yang & Zhao, Kun & Wang, Chao & Liu, Chao, 2020. "The dynamic relationship between internet attention and stock market liquidity: A thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    4. Gao, Ya & Xiong, Xiong & Feng, Xu & Li, Youwei & Vigne, Samuel A., 2019. "A new attention proxy and order imbalance: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 411-417.
    5. Wang, Feng & Chai, Wei & Yan, Bin & Shan, Jing & Fan, Wenna, 2022. "Effect of geographical distance between underwriters and listed companies on IPO underpricing: Evidence from China's A-share market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 340-352.
    6. Emna Mnif & Anis Jarboui & M. Kabir Hassan & Khaireddine Mouakhar, 2020. "Big data tools for Islamic financial analysis," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 10-21, January.
    7. Long, Wen & Zhao, Manyi & Tang, Yeran, 2021. "Can the Chinese volatility index reflect investor sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Chiou, Wan-Jiun Paul & Knewtson, Heather S. & Nofsinger, John R., 2019. "Paying attention to social media stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 106-119.
    9. Long, Wen & Zhong, Yanqiang, 2023. "The neglected cohort: The impact of silent majority in social media on stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Sapkota, Niranjan & Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "Fear sells: On the sentiment deceptions and fundraising success of initial coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Tsai-Yin Lin & Jerry Yu & Chia-Yi Lin, 2021. "IPO’s Long-Run Performance: Hot Market versus Earnings Management," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, March.
    12. Xiaohong Shen & Gaoshan Wang & Yue Wang & Alfred Peris, 2021. "The Influence of Research Reports on Stock Returns: The Mediating Effect of Machine-Learning-Based Investor Sentiment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2021, pages 1-14, December.
    13. Miwa, Kotaro, 2021. "Language barriers in analyst reports," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 223-236.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Young Bong & Kwon, YoungOk, 2020. "Attention-grabbing IPOs in early stages for IT firms: An empirical analysis of post-IPO performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 111-119.
    2. Chan, Yue-Cheong, 2014. "How does retail sentiment affect IPO returns? Evidence from the internet bubble period," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 235-248.
    3. Cook, Douglas O. & Kieschnick, Robert & Van Ness, Robert A., 2006. "On the marketing of IPOs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 35-61, October.
    4. Agathee, Ushad Subadar & Sannassee, Raja Vinesh & Brooks, Chris, 2012. "The underpricing of IPOs on the Stock Exchange of Mauritius," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 281-303.
    5. Ranganathan, Kavitha & Saraogi, Aayush, 2021. "What explains voluntary premarket underpricing and aftermarket mispricing in Indian IPOs?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    6. Bhattacharya, Arnab, 2017. "Innovations in new venture financing: Evidence from Indian SME IPOs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 72-88.
    7. Salim Chahine & Gonul Colak & Iftekhar Hasan & Mohamad Mazboudi, 2020. "Investor relations and IPO performance," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 474-512, June.
    8. Jeon, Jin Q. & Lee, Cheolwoo & Nasser, Tareque & Via, M. Tony, 2015. "Multiple lead underwriter IPOs and firm visibility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 128-149.
    9. Oehler, Andreas & Rummer, Marco & Smith, Peter N., 2004. "IPO Pricing and the Relative Importance of Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 26, University of Bamberg, Chair of Finance.
    10. Saade, Samer, 2015. "Investor sentiment and the underperformance of technology firms initial public offerings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 205-232.
    11. Jiang, Li & Li, Gao, 2013. "Investor sentiment and IPO pricing during pre-market and aftermarket periods: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 65-82.
    12. Natalia Matanova & Tanja Steigner & Bingsheng Yi & Qiancheng Zheng, 2019. "Going concern opinions and IPO pricing accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-238, July.
    13. Wang, Zhiqiang & Su, Bingbai & Coakley, Jerry & Shen, Zhe, 2018. "Prospect theory and IPO returns in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 726-751.
    14. Michael O'Connor Keefe & David Gallagher, 2014. "Does the effect of revealed private information on initial public offering (IPO) first trading day return differ by IPO market heat?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(3), pages 921-964, September.
    15. Fjesme, Sturla Lyngnes & Lv, Jin Roc & Shekhar, Chander, 2023. "The world cup in football and the US IPO market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Hyoung-Goo Kang & Kyounghun Bae & Jung Ah Shin & Seongmin Jeon, 2021. "Will data on internet queries predict the performance in the marketplace: an empirical study on online searches and IPO stock returns," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 101-124, March.
    17. Butler, Alexander W. & Keefe, Michael O'Connor & Kieschnick, Robert, 2014. "Robust determinants of IPO underpricing and their implications for IPO research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 367-383.
    18. Surendranath Jory & Jeff Madura, 2007. "Equity Offerings by Firms That Emerged from Bankruptcy," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, Fall.
    19. T. Clifton Green & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2012. "Initial Public Offerings as Lotteries: Skewness Preference and First-Day Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 432-444, February.
    20. Gao, Yan, 2010. "What comprises IPO initial returns: Evidence from the Chinese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 77-89, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Message board; Text mining; IPO; Investor attention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:205-217. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.