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Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints

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  • Lin, Emily
  • Lee, Cheng-Few
  • Wang, Kehluh

Abstract

The aim of the research is to determine how the lifting of price restrictions on short sales and security-lending sales affects market efficiency, liquidity and arbitrage opportunities. The study examines trading behaviors of large and small traders separated by their transaction costs and shows the lifting of price restrictions strengthens the correlation between extreme order imbalance and extreme mispricing. Also, autocorrelations of the underpricing and overpricing persist longer, in particular for big traders, and so do those of buy-side and sell-side order imbalances. However, the outcomes for the post-lifting market efficiency are mixed. This paper provides evidence that lifting price restrictions enhances informed trading and the lead–lag relationship between mispricing and order imbalance in the cash and futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:408-423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.08.001
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    2. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2014. "Non-parametric analysis of equity arbitrage," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 199-216.
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    4. Agudelo, Diego A. & Giraldo, Santiago & Villarraga, Edwin, 2015. "Does PIN measure information? Informed trading effects on returns and liquidity in six emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 149-161.
    5. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Perera, Devmali, 2019. "Stock index futures arbitrage: Evidence from a meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 284-294.
    6. Lee, Jaeram & Kang, Jangkoo & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Common deviation and regime-dependent dynamics in the index derivatives markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-22.
    7. Chang, Charles & Lin, Emily, 2015. "Cash-futures basis and the impact of market maturity, informed trading, and expiration effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 197-213.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short sales; Security lending sales; Mispricing; Arbitrage; Probability of informed trading (PIN); Order imbalance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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