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The Lead-Lag Relation between Spot and Futures Markets under Different Short-Selling Regimes

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  • Jiang, Li
  • Fung, Joseph K W
  • Cheng, Louis T W

Abstract

We examine the lead-lag relation between index futures and the underlying index under three types of short-selling restrictions on stocks in Hong Kong. Our results indicate that lifting short-selling restrictions can enhance the informational efficiency of the stock market relative to the index futures. We also investigate the impact of two market characteristics, market conditions and the magnitude of mispricing on the lead-lag relations under different short-selling regimes. Our findings suggest that if we remove restrictions, the contemporaneous price relation between the futures and cash markets becomes stronger particularly in the falling market and when the cash market is relatively overpriced. Copyright 2001 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Li & Fung, Joseph K W & Cheng, Louis T W, 2001. "The Lead-Lag Relation between Spot and Futures Markets under Different Short-Selling Regimes," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 63-88, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:36:y:2001:i:3:p:63-88
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    Cited by:

    1. S. Wong & K. Chau & C. Yiu, 2007. "Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 281-293, October.
    2. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Rydge, James, 2006. "The current state of Asia-Pacific stock exchanges: A critical review of market design," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-32, January.
    3. Lin, Emily & Lee, Cheng-Few & Wang, Kehluh, 2013. "Futures mispricing, order imbalance, and short-selling constraints," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 408-423.
    4. Fei Ren & Mei-Ling Cai & Sai-Ping Li & Xiong Xiong & Zhang-HangJian Chen, 2023. "A Multi-market Comparison of the Intraday Lead–Lag Relations Among Stock Index-Based Spot, Futures and Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 1-28, June.
    5. Chen, Zhang-HangJian & Ren, Fei & Yang, Ming-Yuan & Lu, Feng-Zhi & Li, Sai-Ping, 2023. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between Chinese carbon emission trading and stock markets under exogenous shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 295-305.
    6. David M. Schizer & Michael R. Powers & Martin Shubik, 2003. "Market Bubbles and Wasteful Avoidance: Tax and Regulatory Constraints on Short Sales," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm356, Yale School of Management.
    7. Joseph K.W. Fung, 2006. "Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures," Working Papers 132006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    8. Yao, Can-Zhong & Lin, Qing-Wen, 2017. "The mutual causality analysis between the stock and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 478(C), pages 188-204.
    9. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    10. Lee, Jaeram & Kang, Jangkoo & Ryu, Doojin, 2015. "Common deviation and regime-dependent dynamics in the index derivatives markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-22.
    11. McMillan, David G. & Philip, Dennis, 2012. "Short-sale constraints and efficiency of the spot–futures dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 129-136.
    12. Yiu‐Kuen Tse & Wai‐Sum Chan, 2010. "The Lead–Lag Relation Between The S&P500 Spot And Futures Markets: An Intraday‐Data Analysis Using A Threshold Regression Model," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 133-144, March.
    13. Wang, Janchung & Yeh, Shih-Kuo & Wang, Bo-Ting, 2020. "The effect of short-sale restrictions on the information transmission of extended index futures trading," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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