Order Imbalance and the Pricing of Index Futures
AbstractThis study examines whether the direction and magnitude of the aggregate order-imbalance of the index stocks can explain the arbitrage spread between index futures and the underlying cash index. The data are for the Asian financial crisis period and hence entail wide variations in order imbalance and the index-futures basis. The analysis controls for realistic trading costs and actual dividend payments. The results indicate that the arbitrage spread is positively related to the aggregate order imbalance in the underlying index stocks; negative order-imbalance has a stronger impact than positive order imbalance. Violations of the upper no-arbitrage bound are related to positive order imbalance and violations of the lower no-arbitrage bound are related to negative order imbalance. Asymmetric response times to negative and positive spreads can be attributed to the difficulty, cost, and risk of short stock arbitrage when the futures is below its no-arbitrage value. The significant relationship between order imbalance and arbitrage spread confirm that index arbitrageurs are important providers of liquidity in the futures market when the stock market is in disequilibrium.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 132006.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grossman, Sanford J, 1988.
"An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-98, July.
- Sanford J. Grossman, 1989. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," NBER Working Papers 2357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995.
"The Limits of Arbitrage,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Chan, Kalok & Fong, Wai-Ming, 2000. "Trade size, order imbalance, and the volatility-volume relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 247-273, August.
- Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. " Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
- Kleidon, Allan W, 1992. "Arbitrage, Nontrading, and Stale Prices: October 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 483-507, October.
- Neal, Robert, 1996. "Direct Tests of Index Arbitrage Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 541-562, December.
- David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, 04.
- Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
- Kleidon, Allan W & Whaley, Robert E, 1992. " One Market? Stocks, Futures, and Options during October 1987," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 851-77, July.
- Harris, Lawrence & Sofianos, George & Shapiro, James E, 1994. "Program Trading and Intraday Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 653-85.
- Joseph K. W. Fung & Li Jiang, 1999. "Restrictions on Short-Selling and Spot-Futures Dynamics," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1-2), pages 227-248.
- William J. Breen & Laurie Simon Hodrick & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2002. "Predicting Equity Liquidity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 470-483, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.