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America’s fleet evolution in an automated future

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  • Quarles, Neil
  • Kockelman, Kara M.
  • Lee, Jooyong

Abstract

Cost reductions and technological advancements are priming autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles for rapid growth, which may improve safety and mobility, but may also increase vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). This study seeks to improve upon existing fleet evolution work, by simulating the adoption of autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles in a single fleet evolution simulation, calibrated with results of a recent survey of Americans. Statistical models are used in the household-level microsimulation to model decisions regarding vehicle transactions, travel behavior, and land use decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Quarles, Neil & Kockelman, Kara M. & Lee, Jooyong, 2021. "America’s fleet evolution in an automated future," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s0739885921000792
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2021.101107
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Musti, Sashank & Kockelman, Kara M., 2011. "Evolution of the household vehicle fleet: Anticipating fleet composition, PHEV adoption and GHG emissions in Austin, Texas," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 707-720, October.
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    4. Karsten Kieckhäfer & Thomas Volling & Thomas Stefan Spengler, 2014. "A Hybrid Simulation Approach for Estimating the Market Share Evolution of Electric Vehicles," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 651-670, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gurumurthy, Krishna Murthy & Kockelman, Kara M., 2022. "Dynamic ride-sharing impacts of greater trip demand and aggregation at stops in shared autonomous vehicle systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 114-125.

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