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Evaluating the accuracy of CFSR reanalysis hourly wind speed forecasts for the UK, using in situ measurements and geographical information

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  • Sharp, Ed
  • Dodds, Paul
  • Barrett, Mark
  • Spataru, Catalina

Abstract

Climate data can be used in simulations to estimate the output of wind turbines in locations where meteorological observations are not available. We perform the most comprehensive evaluation of the NCEP CFSR reanalysis model hourly wind speed hindcasts to date, and the first for the UK, by correlating the data against 264 onshore and 12 offshore synoptic weather stations, over a period of 30 years. The correlation of CFSR data to in situ measurements is similar to alternative approaches used in other studies both onshore and offshore. We investigate the impact of the topography, land use and mean wind speed on the onshore locations for the first time. The analysis of these spatial factors shows that CFSR represents the variety of terrain over UK well, and that the worst correlated sites are those at the highest elevations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharp, Ed & Dodds, Paul & Barrett, Mark & Spataru, Catalina, 2015. "Evaluating the accuracy of CFSR reanalysis hourly wind speed forecasts for the UK, using in situ measurements and geographical information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 527-538.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:77:y:2015:i:c:p:527-538
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.12.025
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    Cited by:

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    17. Gualtieri, G., 2022. "Analysing the uncertainties of reanalysis data used for wind resource assessment: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Commin, Andrew N. & French, Andrew S. & Marasco, Matteo & Loxton, Jennifer & Gibb, Stuart W. & McClatchey, John, 2017. "The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on diverse renewable generation in Scotland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 855-867.
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    20. de Assis Tavares, Luiz Filipe & Shadman, Milad & de Freitas Assad, Luiz Paulo & Silva, Corbiniano & Landau, Luiz & Estefen, Segen F., 2020. "Assessment of the offshore wind technical potential for the Brazilian Southeast and South regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    21. Pfenninger, Stefan & Staffell, Iain, 2016. "Long-term patterns of European PV output using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1251-1265.
    22. Commin, Andrew N. & Davidson, Magnus W.H. & Largey, Nicola & Gaffney, Paul P.J. & Braidwood, David W. & Gibb, Stuart W. & McClatchey, John, 2017. "Spatial smoothing of onshore wind: Implications for strategic development in Scotland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 36-48.
    23. Wang, Yi-Hui & Walter, Ryan K. & White, Crow & Farr, Hayley & Ruttenberg, Benjamin I., 2019. "Assessment of surface wind datasets for estimating offshore wind energy along the Central California Coast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 343-353.

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