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Will the development of bioenergy in China create a food security problem? Modeling with fuel ethanol as an example

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  • Wu, Fangwei
  • Zhang, Deyuan
  • Zhang, Jinghua

Abstract

This paper uses fuel ethanol from corn as an example to establish a theoretical model and framework to explore possible impacts of developing bioenergy on food security in China under short run and long run dynamic equilibriums with import supplements. From the three aspects including “fighting for food with people”, “fighting for land with food”, and international trade safety, the conditions that create food safety problems are discussed. In a closed economy, when the decrease in direct or indirect demand for corn caused by corn price rise is larger than the demand increase due to income increase, or when corn demand increase caused by fuel ethanol price rise is larger than the corn demand decrease caused by the decrease in government price subsidy for fuel ethanol, food security problem will appear. Food security problem can be solved by implementing trade policy when a stable import source is available. Otherwise the subsidies, substitutes, technology, etc. should be used to increase the rate of self-supply. Moreover, considering the status quo of corn market, the paper puts forward a set of policies of income and price subsidy, substitutes, and trade and technology to solve the problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Fangwei & Zhang, Deyuan & Zhang, Jinghua, 2012. "Will the development of bioenergy in China create a food security problem? Modeling with fuel ethanol as an example," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 127-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:47:y:2012:i:c:p:127-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.03.039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fan, Shenggen, 1997. "Production and productivity growth in Chinese agriculture: new measurement and evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 213-228, June.
    2. Cheng Fang & John C. Beghin, 2000. "Food Self-Sufficiency, Comparative Advantage, and Agricultural Trade: A Policy Analysis Matrix for Chinese Agriculture," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 99-wp223, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Considine, Timothy J & Mount, Timothy D, 1984. "The Use of Linear Logit Models for Dynamic Input Demand Systems," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 434-443, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristensen, Søren Bech Pilgaard & Birch-Thomsen, Torben & Rasmussen, Kjeld & Rasmussen, Laura Vang & Traoré, Oumar, 2014. "Cassava as an energy crop: A case study of the potential for an expansion of cassava cultivation for bioethanol production in Southern Mali," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 381-390.
    2. Ge, Jianping & Lei, Yalin, 2017. "Policy options for non-grain bioethanol in China: Insights from an economy-energy-environment CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 502-511.
    3. de Barros, Marisa Maia & Szklo, Alexandre, 2015. "Petroleum refining flexibility and cost to address the risk of ethanol supply disruptions: The case of Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 20-31.
    4. Jiashun Huang & Weiping Li & Xijie Huang & Lijia Guo, 2017. "Analysis of the Relative Sustainability of Land Devoted to Bioenergy: Comparing Land-Use Alternatives in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-13, May.
    5. Long, Huiling & Li, Xiaobing & Wang, Hong & Jia, Jingdun, 2013. "Biomass resources and their bioenergy potential estimation: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 344-352.

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