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Addressing imperfect maintenance modelling uncertainty in unavailability and cost based optimization

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  • Sanchez, Ana
  • Carlos, Sofia
  • Martorell, Sebastian
  • Villanueva, Jose F.

Abstract

Optimization of testing and maintenance activities performed in the different systems of a complex industrial plant is of great interest as the plant availability and economy strongly depend on the maintenance activities planned. Traditionally, two types of models, i.e. deterministic and probabilistic, have been considered to simulate the impact of testing and maintenance activities on equipment unavailability and the cost involved. Both models present uncertainties that are often categorized as either aleatory or epistemic uncertainties. The second group applies when there is limited knowledge on the proper model to represent a problem, and/or the values associated to the model parameters, so the results of the calculation performed with them incorporate uncertainty. This paper addresses the problem of testing and maintenance optimization based on unavailability and cost criteria and considering epistemic uncertainty in the imperfect maintenance modelling. It is framed as a multiple criteria decision making problem where unavailability and cost act as uncertain and conflicting decision criteria. A tolerance interval based approach is used to address uncertainty with regard to effectiveness parameter and imperfect maintenance model embedded within a multiple-objective genetic algorithm. A case of application for a stand-by safety related system of a nuclear power plant is presented. The results obtained in this application show the importance of considering uncertainties in the modelling of imperfect maintenance, as the optimal solutions found are associated with a large uncertainty that influences the final decision making depending on, for example, if the decision maker is risk averse or risk neutral.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanchez, Ana & Carlos, Sofia & Martorell, Sebastian & Villanueva, Jose F., 2009. "Addressing imperfect maintenance modelling uncertainty in unavailability and cost based optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 22-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:1:p:22-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martorell, S. & Sanchez, A. & Carlos, S., 2007. "A tolerance interval based approach to address uncertainty for RAMS+C optimization," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 408-422.
    2. Wu, Shaomin & Clements-Croome, Derek, 2005. "Preventive maintenance models with random maintenance quality," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 99-105.
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    Cited by:

    1. Compare, M. & Martini, F. & Zio, E., 2015. "Genetic algorithms for condition-based maintenance optimization under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(2), pages 611-623.
    2. Zhou, Xiaojun & Wu, Changjie & Li, Yanting & Xi, Lifeng, 2016. "A preventive maintenance model for leased equipment subject to internal degradation and external shock damage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-7.
    3. Scheu, Matti Niclas & Kolios, Athanasios & Fischer, Tim & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Influence of statistical uncertainty of component reliability estimations on offshore wind farm availability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 28-39.
    4. Pérez Ramírez, Pedro A. & Utne, Ingrid Bouwer, 2013. "Decision support for life extension of technical systems through virtual age modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 55-69.
    5. Le, Minh Duc & Tan, Cher Ming, 2013. "Optimal maintenance strategy of deteriorating system under imperfect maintenance and inspection using mixed inspectionscheduling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 21-29.
    6. Martorell, P. & Martón, I. & Sánchez, A.I. & Martorell, S., 2017. "Unavailability model for demand-caused failures of safety components addressing degradation by demand-induced stress, maintenance effectiveness and test efficiency," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 18-27.
    7. Tanwar, Monika & Rai, Rajiv N. & Bolia, Nomesh, 2014. "Imperfect repair modeling using Kijima type generalized renewal process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 24-31.
    8. Thiago Lima de Barros & Rodrigo Sampaio Lopes, 2021. "Continuous improvement of imperfect maintenance actions in PAS and PAR models," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 235(5), pages 941-958, October.
    9. Wu, Fan & Niknam, Seyed A. & Kobza, John E., 2015. "A cost effective degradation-based maintenance strategy under imperfect repair," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 234-243.
    10. Martón, I. & Martorell, P. & Mullor, R. & Sánchez, A.I. & Martorell, S., 2016. "Optimization of test and maintenance of ageing components consisting of multiple items and addressing effectiveness," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 151-158.
    11. KanÄ ev, DuÅ¡ko & ÄŒepin, Marko & Gjorgiev, Blaže, 2014. "Development and application of a living probabilistic safety assessment tool: Multi-objective multi-dimensional optimization of surveillance requirements in NPPs considering their ageing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 135-147.
    12. Andrés Cacereño & David Greiner & Blas J. Galván, 2021. "Multi-Objective Optimum Design and Maintenance of Safety Systems: An In-Depth Comparison Study Including Encoding and Scheduling Aspects with NSGA-II," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-39, July.
    13. Martón, I. & Sánchez, A.I. & Martorell, S., 2015. "Ageing PSA incorporating effectiveness of maintenance and testing," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 131-140.
    14. Tao, Xin & Mårtensson, Jonas & Warnquist, Håkan & Pernestål, Anna, 2022. "Short-term maintenance planning of autonomous trucks for minimizing economic risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    15. Martorell, S. & Villamizar, M. & Martón, I. & Villanueva, J.F. & Carlos, S. & Sánchez, A.I., 2014. "Evaluation of risk impact of changes to surveillance requirements addressing model and parameter uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 153-165.
    16. de Jonge, Bram & Scarf, Philip A., 2020. "A review on maintenance optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(3), pages 805-824.
    17. Remy, Emmanuel & Corset, Franck & Despréaux, Stéphane & Doyen, Laurent & Gaudoin, Olivier, 2013. "An example of integrated approach to technical and economic optimization of maintenance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 8-19.

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