IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v92y2007i10p1388-1402.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites

Author

Listed:
  • Georgiadou, Paraskevi S.
  • Papazoglou, Ioannis A.
  • Kiranoudis, Chris T.
  • Markatos, Nikolaos C.

Abstract

A model providing the temporal and spatial distribution of the population under evacuation around a major hazard facility is developed. A discrete state stochastic Markov process simulates the movement of the evacuees. The area around the hazardous facility is divided into nodes connected among themselves with links representing the road system of the area. Transition from node-to-node is simulated as a random process where the probability of transition depends on the dynamically changed states of the destination and origin nodes and on the link between them. Solution of the Markov process provides the expected distribution of the evacuees in the nodes of the area as a function of time. A Monte Carlo solution of the model provides in addition a sample of actual trajectories of the evacuees. This information coupled with an accident analysis which provides the spatial and temporal distribution of the extreme phenomenon following an accident, determines a sample of the actual doses received by the evacuees. Both the average dose and the actual distribution of doses are then used as measures in evaluating alternative emergency response strategies. It is shown that in some cases the estimation of the health consequences by the average dose might be either too conservative or too non-conservative relative to the one corresponding to the distribution of the received dose and hence not a suitable measure to evaluate alternative evacuation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgiadou, Paraskevi S. & Papazoglou, Ioannis A. & Kiranoudis, Chris T. & Markatos, Nikolaos C., 2007. "Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1388-1402.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1388-1402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832006001979
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2006.09.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajat Jain & J. Macgregor Smith, 1997. "Modeling Vehicular Traffic Flow using M/G/C/C State Dependent Queueing Models," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 324-336, November.
    2. Sinuany-Stern, Zilla & Stern, Eliahu, 1993. "Simulating the evacuation of a small city: the effects of traffic factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 97-108, June.
    3. Pidd, M. & de Silva, F. N. & Eglese, R. W., 1996. "A simulation model for emergency evacuation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 413-419, May.
    4. Thomas J Cova & Justin P Johnson, 2002. "Microsimulation of Neighborhood Evacuations in the Urban–Wildland Interface," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 34(12), pages 2211-2229, December.
    5. Cova, Thomas J. & Johnson, Justin P., 2003. "A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 579-604, August.
    6. Hazelton, Martin L., 2002. "Day-to-day variation in Markovian traffic assignment models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 637-648, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    2. Huan Cao & Tian Li & Shuxia Li & Tijun Fan, 2017. "An integrated emergency response model for toxic gas release accidents based on cellular automata," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 255(1), pages 617-638, August.
    3. Teichmann, Dusan & Dorda, Michal & Sousek, Radovan, 2021. "Creation of preventive mass evacuation plan with the use of public transport," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    4. Galindo, Gina & Batta, Rajan, 2013. "Review of recent developments in OR/MS research in disaster operations management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 201-211.
    5. Fang, Zhixiang & Zong, Xinlu & Li, Qingquan & Li, Qiuping & Xiong, Shengwu, 2011. "Hierarchical multi-objective evacuation routing in stadium using ant colony optimization approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 443-451.
    6. Seo, Seung-Kwon & Yoon, Young-Gak & Lee, Ju-sung & Na, Jonggeol & Lee, Chul-Jin, 2022. "Deep Neural Network-based Optimization Framework for Safety Evacuation Route during Toxic Gas Leak Incidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    7. Liu, Yu & Wang, Weijie & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Li, Yanfeng & Yang, Yuanjian, 2014. "A new simulation model for assessing aircraft emergency evacuation considering passenger physical characteristics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 187-197.
    8. Zheng, Xiaoping & Liu, Mengting, 2010. "Forecasting model for pedestrian distribution under emergency evacuation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1186-1192.
    9. Gai, Wen-mei & Deng, Yun-feng & Jiang, Zhong-an & Li, Jing & Du, Yan, 2017. "Multi-objective evacuation routing optimization for toxic cloud releases," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 58-68.
    10. Lovreglio, Ruggiero & Spearpoint, Michael & Girault, Mathilde, 2019. "The impact of sampling methods on evacuation model convergence and egress time," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 24-34.
    11. Chen, Chao & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2021. "A dynamic multi-agent approach for modeling the evolution of multi-hazard accident scenarios in chemical plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stepanov, Alexander & Smith, James MacGregor, 2009. "Multi-objective evacuation routing in transportation networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 435-446, October.
    2. X Chen & F B Zhan, 2008. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation: relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(1), pages 25-33, January.
    3. Xinhua Mao & Changwei Yuan & Jiahua Gan & Jibiao Zhou, 2019. "Optimal Evacuation Strategy for Parking Lots Considering the Dynamic Background Traffic Flows," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-20, June.
    4. Lassiter, Kyle & Khademi, Amin & Taaffe, Kevin M., 2015. "A robust optimization approach to volunteer management in humanitarian crises," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 97-111.
    5. A. Kimms & K. Seekircher, 2016. "Network design to anticipate selfish evacuation routing," EURO Journal on Computational Optimization, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 4(3), pages 271-298, September.
    6. Zhang, Nan & Huang, Hong & Su, Boni & Zhao, Jinlong, 2015. "Analysis of dynamic road risk for pedestrian evacuation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 171-183.
    7. Qixiu Cheng & Zhiyuan Liu & Feifei Liu & Ruo Jia, 2017. "Urban dynamic congestion pricing: an overview and emerging research needs," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(0), pages 3-18, August.
    8. David Eichler & Hillel Bar-Gera & Meir Blachman, 2013. "Vortex-Based Zero-Conflict Design of Urban Road Networks," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 229-254, September.
    9. Xu, Xiangdong & Qu, Kai & Chen, Anthony & Yang, Chao, 2021. "A new day-to-day dynamic network vulnerability analysis approach with Weibit-based route adjustment process," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Firas Rifai, 2018. "Transfer of Knowhow and Experiences from Commercial Logistics into Humanitarian Logistics to Improve Rescue Missions in Disaster Areas," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(3), pages 1-63, August.
    11. Nagarajan, Magesh & Shaw, Duncan & Albores, Pavel, 2012. "Disseminating a warning message to evacuate: A simulation study of the behaviour of neighbours," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 810-819.
    12. P. Daniel Wright & Matthew J. Liberatore & Robert L. Nydick, 2006. "A Survey of Operations Research Models and Applications in Homeland Security," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 514-529, December.
    13. Cuiyun Cheng & Xin Qian & Yuchao Zhang & Qingeng Wang & Jinbao Sheng, 2011. "Estimation of the evacuation clearance time based on dam-break simulation of the Huaxi dam in Southwestern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(2), pages 227-243, May.
    14. Pedro Cesar Lopes Gerum & Andrew Reed Benton & Melike Baykal-Gürsoy, 2019. "Traffic density on corridors subject to incidents: models for long-term congestion management," EURO Journal on Transportation and Logistics, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 8(5), pages 795-831, December.
    15. Liu, Zhichen & Li, Ying & Zhang, Zhaoyi & Yu, Wenbo, 2022. "A new evacuation accessibility analysis approach based on spatial information," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    16. Cova, Thomas J. & Johnson, Justin P., 2003. "A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 579-604, August.
    17. Amir Rastpour & Armann Ingolfsson & Bora Kolfal, 2020. "Modeling Yellow and Red Alert Durations for Ambulance Systems," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(8), pages 1972-1991, August.
    18. Esposito Amideo, A. & Scaparra, M.P. & Kotiadis, K., 2019. "Optimising shelter location and evacuation routing operations: The critical issues," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 279-295.
    19. Hector R. Lim & Ma. Bernadeth B. Lim & Mongkut Piantanakulchai, 2016. "Determinants of household flood evacuation mode choice in a developing country," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 507-532, October.
    20. Pruttipong Apivatanagul & Rachel Davidson & Linda Nozick, 2012. "Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 567-588, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:92:y:2007:i:10:p:1388-1402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.