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Microsimulation of Neighborhood Evacuations in the Urban–Wildland Interface

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  • Thomas J Cova
  • Justin P Johnson

Abstract

Residential development in fire-prone wildlands is occurring at an unprecedented rate. Community-based evacuation planning in many areas is an emerging need. In this paper we present a method for using microscopic traffic simulation to develop and test neighborhood evacuation plans in the urban–wildland interface. The method allows an analyst to map the subneighborhood variation in household evacuation travel times under various scenarios. A custom scenario generator manages household trip generation, departure timing, and destination choice. Traffic simulation, route choice, and dynamic visualization are handled by a commercial system. We present a case study for a controversial fire-prone canyon community east of Salt Lake City, Utah. GIS was used to map the spatial effects of a proposed second access road on household evacuation times. Our results indicate that the second road will reduce some household travel times much more than others, but all evacuation travel times will become more consistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J Cova & Justin P Johnson, 2002. "Microsimulation of Neighborhood Evacuations in the Urban–Wildland Interface," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 34(12), pages 2211-2229, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:34:y:2002:i:12:p:2211-2229
    DOI: 10.1068/a34251
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Antoine G. Hobeika & Sigon Kim & Robert E. Beckwith, 1994. "A Decision Support System for Developing Evacuation Plans around Nuclear Power Stations," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 24(5), pages 22-35, October.
    2. Sinuany-Stern, Zilla & Stern, Eliahu, 1993. "Simulating the evacuation of a small city: the effects of traffic factors," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 97-108, June.
    3. Hossain, M., 1999. "Capacity estimation of traffic circles under mixed traffic conditions using micro-simulation technique," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 47-61, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georgiadou, Paraskevi S. & Papazoglou, Ioannis A. & Kiranoudis, Chris T. & Markatos, Nikolaos C., 2007. "Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard industrial sites," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(10), pages 1388-1402.
    2. Stepanov, Alexander & Smith, James MacGregor, 2009. "Multi-objective evacuation routing in transportation networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(2), pages 435-446, October.
    3. X Chen & F B Zhan, 2008. "Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation: relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(1), pages 25-33, January.

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