IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/proeco/v118y2009i1p55-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Demand forecasting for supply processes in consideration of pricing and market information

Author

Listed:
  • Reiner, Gerald
  • Fichtinger, Johannes

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model that can be used to evaluate supply chain process improvements, e.g. different forecast methods. In particular we use for evaluation a bullwhip effect measure, the service level (fill rate) and the average on hold inventory. We define and apply a robustness criterion to enable the comparison of different process alternatives, i.e. the range of observation periods above a certain service level. This criterion can help managers to reduce risks and furthermore variability by applying robust process improvements. Furthermore we are able to demonstrate with our research results that the bullwhip effect is an important but not the only performance measure that should be used to evaluate process improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Reiner, Gerald & Fichtinger, Johannes, 2009. "Demand forecasting for supply processes in consideration of pricing and market information," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 55-62, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:118:y:2009:i:1:p:55-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925-5273(08)00247-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ton de Kok & Fred Janssen & Jan van Doremalen & Erik van Wachem & Mathieu Clerkx & Winfried Peeters, 2005. "Philips Electronics Synchronizes Its Supply Chain to End the Bullwhip Effect," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 37-48, February.
    2. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Van Houdt, Benny, 2007. "An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(1), pages 121-142, April.
    3. Briesch, Richard A, et al, 1997. "A Comparative Analysis of Reference Price Models," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 24(2), pages 202-214, September.
    4. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 2004. "Comments on "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1887-1893, December.
    5. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 2004. "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1875-1886, December.
    6. Martin Natter & Thomas Reutterer & Andreas Mild & Alfred Taudes, 2007. "—An Assortmentwide Decision-Support System for Dynamic Pricing and Promotion Planning in DIY Retailing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 576-583, 07-08.
    7. John D. Sterman, 1989. "Modeling Managerial Behavior: Misperceptions of Feedback in a Dynamic Decision Making Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 321-339, March.
    8. Eric A. Greenleaf, 1995. "The Impact of Reference Price Effects on the Profitability of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 82-104.
    9. Gérard P. Cachon & Marshall Fisher, 2000. "Supply Chain Inventory Management and the Value of Shared Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(8), pages 1032-1048, August.
    10. Gadi Fibich & Arieh Gavious & Oded Lowengart, 2003. "Explicit Solutions of Optimization Models and Differential Games with Nonsmooth (Asymmetric) Reference-Price Effects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 721-734, October.
    11. Ioana Popescu & Yaozhong Wu, 2007. "Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 413-429, June.
    12. Teck-Hua Ho & Juanjuan Zhang, 2005. "Does Format of Pricing Contract Matter?," Econometrics 0504008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Frank Chen & Zvi Drezner & Jennifer K. Ryan & David Simchi-Levi, 2000. "Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 436-443, March.
    14. Kamel Jedidi & Z. John Zhang, 2002. "Augmenting Conjoint Analysis to Estimate Consumer Reservation Price," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(10), pages 1350-1368, October.
    15. Praveen K. Kopalle & Ambar G. Rao & João L. Assunção, 1996. "Asymmetric Reference Price Effects and Dynamic Pricing Policies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(1), pages 60-85.
    16. Hosoda, Takamichi & Disney, Stephen M., 2006. "On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 344-358, August.
    17. Winer, Russell S, 1986. "A Reference Price Model of Brand Choice for Frequently Purchased Products," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 13(2), pages 250-256, September.
    18. Sterman, John D., 1989. "Misperceptions of feedback in dynamic decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 301-335, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pastore, Erica & Alfieri, Arianna & Zotteri, Giulio, 2019. "An empirical investigation on the antecedents of the bullwhip effect: Evidence from the spare parts industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 121-133.
    2. A A Syntetos & N C Georgantzas & J E Boylan & B C Dangerfield, 2011. "Judgement and supply chain dynamics," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1138-1158, June.
    3. Zhu, Xiaowei & Mukhopadhyay, Samar K. & Yue, Xiaohang, 2011. "Role of forecast effort on supply chain profitability under various information sharing scenarios," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 284-291, February.
    4. Lu, Chi-Jie & Wang, Yen-Wen, 2010. "Combining independent component analysis and growing hierarchical self-organizing maps with support vector regression in product demand forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 603-613, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alfred Taudes & Christian Rudloff, 2012. "Integrating inventory control and a price change in the presence of reference price effects: a two-period model," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 75(1), pages 29-65, February.
    2. Ciancimino, Elena & Cannella, Salvatore & Bruccoleri, Manfredi & Framinan, Jose M., 2012. "On the Bullwhip Avoidance Phase: The Synchronised Supply Chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 49-63.
    3. Zhang, Xiaolong & Burke, Gerard J., 2011. "Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 514-526, May.
    4. Qian Liu & Garrett van Ryzin, 2011. "Strategic Capacity Rationing when Customers Learn," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(1), pages 89-107, September.
    5. Ioana Popescu & Yaozhong Wu, 2007. "Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(3), pages 413-429, June.
    6. Sucky, Eric, 2009. "The bullwhip effect in supply chains--An overestimated problem?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 311-322, March.
    7. Zhang, Juan & Gou, Qinglong & Liang, Liang & Huang, Zhimin, 2013. "Supply chain coordination through cooperative advertising with reference price effect," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 345-353.
    8. Tangsucheeva, Rattachut & Prabhu, Vittaldas, 2013. "Modeling and analysis of cash-flow bullwhip in supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 431-447.
    9. de Lima, Daruichi Pereira & Fioriolli, José Carlos & Padula, Antonio Domingos & Pumi, Guilherme, 2018. "The impact of Chinese imports of soybean on port infrastructure in Brazil: A study based on the concept of the “Bullwhip Effect”," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 55-76.
    10. Gérard P. Cachon & Taylor Randall & Glen M. Schmidt, 2007. "In Search of the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 457-479, April.
    11. Xin Chen & Peng Hu & Zhenyu Hu, 2017. "Efficient Algorithms for the Dynamic Pricing Problem with Reference Price Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4389-4406, December.
    12. Anupam Keshari & Nishikant Mishra & Nagesh Shukla & Steve McGuire & Sangeeta Khorana, 2018. "Multiple order-up-to policy for mitigating bullwhip effect in supply chain network," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 269(1), pages 361-386, October.
    13. Zhang, Jie & Kevin Chiang, Wei–yu & Liang, Liang, 2014. "Strategic pricing with reference effects in a competitive supply chain," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 126-135.
    14. Zhenyu Hu & Xin Chen & Peng Hu, 2016. "Technical Note—Dynamic Pricing with Gain-Seeking Reference Price Effects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(1), pages 150-157, February.
    15. Enrique Holgado de Frutos & Juan R Trapero & Francisco Ramos, 2020. "A literature review on operational decisions applied to collaborative supply chains," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-28, March.
    16. Wang, Xun & Disney, Stephen M., 2016. "The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 691-701.
    17. Shirin Aslani & Soheil Sibdari & Mohammad Modarres, 2018. "Revenue Management with Customers’ Reference Price: Are the Existing Methods Effective?," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(2), pages 195-214, June.
    18. Lai, Richard, 2005. "Bullwhip in a Spanish Shop," MPRA Paper 4758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dejian Yu & Zhaoping Yan, 2021. "Knowledge diffusion of supply chain bullwhip effect: main path analysis and science mapping analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(10), pages 8491-8515, October.
    20. Aharon, Ben-Tal & Boaz, Golany & Shimrit, Shtern, 2009. "Robust multi-echelon multi-period inventory control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 922-935, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:118:y:2009:i:1:p:55-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.