IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v524y2019icp297-305.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock market interactions among Iran, USA, Turkey, and UAE

Author

Listed:
  • Abounoori, Esmaiel
  • Tour, Mansour

Abstract

Due to advanced and progressive satellite digital communications not only economic but social and cultural changes from one country effects on other countries. These in turn affect not only the mean but also on variances of variables regarding the sizes of correlations and partial correlations between the internal and external variables. Therefore, information about the direction and intensity of the influences of the shock and volatility of financial markets on each other is important for investment, policy makers and financial markets planners. In this study, a multivariate GARCH model is estimated using weekly stock index data from December 15 2008 to April 10, 2017 in order to examine the interactions among Iran, United States, Turkey and the United Arab Emirate. The results indicate strong and significant within country effects of ARCH and GARCH. Due to the relatively very large size of the US economy, no effects have been observed from any other country on US stock market. There is bi-directional volatility effect between the Turkey stock market and the stock market of the UAE. Also, the volatility of the Iran stock market unidirectional affects to the stock market in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, due to the regional and the economic interactions. Most of the eigenvalues of the matrix of the ARCH and GARCH effects are close to one, which shows a low degree of relative stability. The volatility spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) indicates that interactions among these markets have been relatively significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Abounoori, Esmaiel & Tour, Mansour, 2019. "Stock market interactions among Iran, USA, Turkey, and UAE," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 297-305.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:524:y:2019:i:c:p:297-305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.232
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119306041
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2019.04.232?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
    3. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    7. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    8. Tastan, Hüseyin, 2006. "Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 445-458.
    9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    10. Abounoori, Esmaiel & Elmi, Zahra (Mila) & Nademi, Younes, 2016. "Forecasting Tehran stock exchange volatility; Markov switching GARCH approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 445(C), pages 264-282.
    11. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1795-1802.
    12. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    13. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Do, Hung Xuan & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf, 2016. "Fossil fuel price uncertainty and feedstock edible oil prices: Evidence from MGARCH-M and VIRF analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 16-27.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhong, Yi & Liu, Jiapeng, 2021. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between China and Southeast Asian stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 57-69.
    2. Samadi, Ali Hussein & Owjimehr, Sakine & Nezhad Halafi, Zohoor, 2021. "The cross-impact between financial markets, Covid-19 pandemic, and economic sanctions: The case of Iran," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 34-55.
    3. Tao, Chen & Zhong, Guang-Yan & Li, Jiang-Cheng, 2023. "Dynamic correlation and risk resonance among industries of Chinese stock market: New evidence from time–frequency domain and complex network perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 614(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Gabauer, 2020. "Volatility impulse response analysis for DCC‐GARCH models: The role of volatility transmission mechanisms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 788-796, August.
    2. Yanan Li & David E. Giles, 2015. "Modelling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 155-177, March.
    3. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Do, Hung Xuan & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf, 2016. "Fossil fuel price uncertainty and feedstock edible oil prices: Evidence from MGARCH-M and VIRF analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 16-27.
    4. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Genc, Ismail H., 2022. "Are Indian Subcontinent remittance markets connected to each other?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2016. "Intra- and inter-regional return and volatility spillovers across emerging and developed markets: Evidence from stock indices and stock index futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 96-114.
    7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    8. Ferhat Camlica & Didem Gunes & Etkin Ozen, 2017. "A Financial Connectedness Analysis for Turkey," Working Papers 1719, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "Givers never lack: Nigerian oil & gas asymmetric network analyses," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    10. Allen, David E. & McAleer, Michael & Powell, Robert J. & Singh, Abhay K., 2017. "Volatility Spillovers from Australia's major trading partners across the GFC," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 159-175.
    11. Das, Suman & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2023. "Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    12. Abdul Hakim & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Modelling the interactions across international stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 825-850.
    13. Ziadat, Salem Adel & Herbst, Patrick & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Inter- and intra-regional stock market relations for the GCC bloc," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    14. Guo, Li-Yang & Feng, Chao, 2021. "Are there spillovers among China's pilots for carbon emission allowances trading?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    16. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Maphelane Palesa Phume, 2022. "Return and volatility spillovers between South African and Nigerian equity markets," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(2), pages 205-218, January.
    17. Baruník, Jozef & Kočenda, Evžen & Vácha, Lukáš, 2016. "Asymmetric connectedness on the U.S. stock market: Bad and good volatility spillovers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 55-78.
    18. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2017. "Volatility spillover effects in interbank money markets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 105-136, February.
    19. Avik Das & Dr. Devanjali Nandi Das, 2022. "Understanding Volatility Spillover Relationship Among G7 Nations And India During Covid-19," Papers 2208.09148, arXiv.org.
    20. Keagile Lesame & Elie Bouri & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "On the Dynamics of International Real Estate Investment Trust Propagation Mechanisms: Evidence from Time-Varying Return and Volatility Connectedness Measures," Working Papers 202152, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shock; Volatility; Stock; Iran; USA; Turkey; UAE; Multivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:524:y:2019:i:c:p:297-305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.