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Testing for contagion under asymmetric dynamics: Evidence from the stock markets between US and Taiwan

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  • Wang, Kuan-Min
  • Nguyen Thi, Thanh-Binh

Abstract

This article is an attempt to test, through the use of forward forecasting test on dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), for contagion between Taiwan and US stocks under asymmetry. The process includes three steps. The first step uses the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm to detect the structural breaks of market return. The second step creates dummy variables for breaks, estimates EGARCH model of conditional generalized error distribution, and computes dynamic conditional correlation coefficients of DCC multivariate GARCH model. The third step employs one-step and N-step forecast test to check for contagion effect. The evidences prove the asymmetric leverage effect of Taiwan weighted stock index and New York—NYSE Composite Index. Interestingly, we discovered that there are two kinds of contagion, “positive” and “negative”, between markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Kuan-Min & Nguyen Thi, Thanh-Binh, 2007. "Testing for contagion under asymmetric dynamics: Evidence from the stock markets between US and Taiwan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 422-432.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:376:y:2007:i:c:p:422-432
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2006.10.084
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    Cited by:

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    2. Serge Darolles & Jérémy Dudek & Gaëlle Le Fol, 2015. "Contagion in Emerging Markets," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Nigel Finch (ed.), Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk, chapter 3, pages 45-58, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    9. Dudek, Jérémy, 2013. "Illiquidité, contagion et risque systémique," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/13236 edited by Le Fol, Gaëlle.
    10. Kundu, Srikanta & Sarkar, Nityananda, 2016. "Return and volatility interdependences in up and down markets across developed and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 297-311.
    11. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Esen, Ömer, 2020. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between oil prices and precious metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    13. Nadhem Selmi & Meriam Chihi-Bouaziz & Nejib Hachicha & Younes Boujelbène & Damien Bazin, 2013. "Testing for Contagion of the Subprime Financial Crisis under Asymmetric Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-01070751, HAL.
    14. Hui, Eddie Chi-man & Chan, Ka Kwan Kevin, 2014. "The global financial crisis: Is there any contagion between real estate and equity markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 216-225.
    15. Chen, Wang & Wei, Yu & Lang, Qiaoqi & Lin, Yu & Liu, Maojuan, 2014. "Financial market volatility and contagion effect: A copula–multifractal volatility approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 289-300.
    16. Cevik, Nuket Kirci & Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel, 2020. "Oil prices, stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 597-614.
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    18. Sinem Derindere KOSEOGLU & Emrah Ismail CEVIK, 2013. "Testing for Causality in Mean and Variance between the Stock Market and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Application to the Major Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 65-86, March.
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