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The accuracy of analysts' dividend forecasts around the world

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  • Brown, Philip
  • How, Janice C.Y.
  • Verhoeven, Peter

Abstract

We examine the link between the accuracy of consensus analysts' dividend forecasts, earnings predictability and dividend policies of firms in 39 countries from 1995 to 2004. For firms that display stronger dividend smoothing, as modeled by Lintner [Lintner, J., 1956. Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings and taxes. American Economic Review 46, 97-113], there is a lower correlation between dividend and earnings forecast errors, with less of the earnings uncertainty being passed into dividend uncertainty. The link between earnings and dividend forecast errors is weaker in common-law, capital market-based countries and in countries with well-developed financial (debt and equity) markets, where firm managers have greater incentives to smooth dividends and to use dividends for signaling.

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  • Brown, Philip & How, Janice C.Y. & Verhoeven, Peter, 2008. "The accuracy of analysts' dividend forecasts around the world," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 411-435, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:16:y:2008:i:4:p:411-435
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    1. Kam Fong Chan & John G. Powell & Jing Shi & Tom Smith, 2018. "Dividend persistence and dividend behaviour," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(1), pages 127-147, March.
    2. Bilinski, Pawel & Lyssimachou, Danielle, 2018. "Dividend guidance to manage analyst dividend expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 53-68.
    3. Jinji Hao & Jonathon Skinner, 2023. "Analyst target price and dividend forecasts and expected stock returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 108-120, March.
    4. Berezinets, I.V. & Bulatova, L.A. & Ilina, Y. B. & Smirnov, M.V., 2016. "How stock market reacts to dividend surprises: Russian and Indian experience," Working Papers 6437, Graduate School of Management, St. Petersburg State University.
    5. Berezinets, I.V. & Bulatova, L.A. & Ilina, Y.B. & Smirnov, M.V., 2015. "Stock market reaction to dividend surprises: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers 6427, Graduate School of Management, St. Petersburg State University.
    6. Scott Walker, 2015. "Repeated Dividend Increases: A Collection of Four Essays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2015.
    7. Scott Walker, 2015. "Repeated Dividend Increases: A Collection of Four Essays," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 17, July-Dece.
    8. Kai-Wei (Shaun) Siau & Stephen J. Sault & Geoffrey J. Warren & Henk Berkman, 2015. "Are imputation credits capitalised into stock prices?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 55(1), pages 241-277, March.

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