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The credit spread dynamics of Latin American euro issues in international bond markets

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Author Info
Thuraisamy, Kannan S.
Gannon, Gerard L.
Batten, Jonathan A.

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Abstract

This paper investigates two important relationships using the sovereign issues made by major Latin American economies in the international bond market: the determinants of credit spread changes using variables derived from structural and macroeconomic theory and the impact of a default episode on the underlying equilibrium dynamics. We find four significant determinants of credit spread changes: an asset and interest rate factor--consistent with structural models of credit spread pricing; the exchange rate--consistent with macroeconomic determinants and the slope of the yield curve--consistent with a business cycle effect. Also, an intra-regional analysis of sovereign yields reveals a shift in the long-run equilibrium dynamics around the Argentine default on the 23 December 2001.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Multinational Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 328-345
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Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:4:p:328-345

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mulfin

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  1. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous-Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Batten, Jonathan & Hogan, Warren & Pynnonen, Seppo, 2000. "The dynamics of Australian dollar bonds with different credit qualities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 389-404. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mills, Terence C & Mills, Alessandra G, 1991. "The International Transmission of Bond Market Movements," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(3), pages 273-81, July.
  5. Batten, Jonathan & Hogan, Warren, 2002. "A perspective on credit derivatives," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 251-278. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Sundaresan, S.M., 2000. "Continuous-Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Papers 00-03, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  7. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Geske, Robert, 1977. "The Valuation of Corporate Liabilities as Compound Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 541-552, November. [Downloadable!]
  10. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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