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Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates

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  • Ampudia, Miguel
  • Van den Heuvel, Skander J.

Abstract

Does banks’ exposure to interest rate risk change when interest rates are very low or negative? Using a high-frequency event study methodology and intraday data, we find that the effect of surprise interest rate cuts by the ECB on European bank equity values – an effect that is normally positive – has become negative since interest rates in the euro area reached zero and below. This ‘reversal’ was far more pronounced for banks with a more deposit-intensive funding mix. We argue that these results can be explained by the zero lower bound on interest rates on retail deposits.

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  • Ampudia, Miguel & Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2022. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:130:y:2022:i:c:p:49-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.05.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul, Pascal, 2023. "Banks, maturity transformation, and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Buchholz, Manuel & Schmidt, Kirsten & Tonzer, Lena, 2020. "Do conventional monetary policy instruments matter in unconventional times?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2022. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2638, European Central Bank.
    4. Simon H. Kwan & Mauricio Ulate & Ville Voutilainen, 2023. "The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland," Working Paper Series 2023-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    7. Michael S. Barr, 2022. "Why Bank Capital Matters: At the American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C. (virtual) December 1st 2022," Speech 95822, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2021. "Comment on “Low Interest Rates and Risk Incentives for Banks with Market Power,” by Whited, Wu, and Xiao," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 175-179.
    9. Marcel Barmeier, 2022. "The new normal: bank lending and negative interest rates in Austria (Marcel Barmeier)," Working Papers 242, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    10. Nguyen, Thai Vu Hong & Pham, Tra Thi Thu & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Nguyen, Binh Thanh, 2020. "Excess liquidity and net interest margins: Evidence from Vietnamese banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2021. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetarypolicy transmission," Discussion Papers 42/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    13. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policies and credit co-movement in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    14. Aleksander Berentsen & Romina Ruprecht & Hugo van Buggenum, 2023. "On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-064, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Alberto Botta & Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2023. "Same old song: On the macroeconomic and distributional effects of leaving a Low Interest Rate Environment," Working Papers PKWP2310, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    16. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    17. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    negative interest rates; monetary policy; bank profitability; reversal rate; ECB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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