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Lost generations of firms and aggregate labor market dynamics

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  • Sedláček, Petr

Abstract

Can the unprecedented lack of startups during the U.S. Great Recession have persistently negative effects? While fewer firms hiring workers can mechanically reduce employment for many years, this may be offset by feedback effects on lower wages, slacker labor markets and higher profits. An estimated model of firm dynamics and frictional labor markets suggests that such feedback effects are too weak to offset the direct impact of fewer startups. Had firm entry remained constant during the Great Recession, output would have recovered 4–6 years earlier and unemployment would have been 0.5 percentage points lower even 10 years after the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sedláček, Petr, 2020. "Lost generations of firms and aggregate labor market dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 16-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:111:y:2020:i:c:p:16-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.01.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Mattia Guerini & Lionel Nesta & Xavier Ragot & Stefano Schiavo, 2022. "The Zombification of the Economy? Assessing the Effectiveness of French Government Support During COVID-19 Lockdown," GREDEG Working Papers 2022-24, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. Adrien Bilal & Niklas Engbom & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1425-1462, July.
    3. Cristiana Benedetti Fasil & Petr Sedlacek & Vincent Sterk, 2020. "EU start-up calculator: impact of COVID-19 on aggregate employment: Scenario analysis for Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal and Sweden," JRC Research Reports JRC122318, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Florin O. Bilbiie & Marc J. Melitz, 2020. "Aggregate-Demand Amplification of Supply Disruptions: The Entry-Exit Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 28258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ia Vardishvili, 2020. "Entry Decision, the Option to Delay Entry, and Business Cycles," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2020-07, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Erhan Artuc & Irene Brambilla & Guido Porto, 2022. "Patterns of Labour Market Adjustment to Trade Shocks with Imperfect Capital Mobility," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2048-2074.
    7. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2022. "Local inequalities of the COVID-19 crisis," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. João Galindo da Fonseca & Charles Berubé, 2023. "Spouses, Children, And Entrepreneurship," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1165-1199, August.
    9. Albert, Christoph & Caggese, Andrea & González, Beatriz & Martin-Sanchez, Victor, 2023. "Income inequality and entrepreneurship: Lessons from the 2020 COVID-19 recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Cristiana Benedetti Fasil & Petr Sedlacek & Vincent Sterk, 2020. "EU start-up calculator: impact of COVID-19 on aggregate employment: Scenario analysis for Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia," JRC Research Reports JRC123086, Joint Research Centre.
    11. Bernstein, Joshua & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2021. "Cyclical net entry and exit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    12. Camino-Mogro, Segundo, 2020. "Turbulence in startups: Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on creation of new firms and its capital," MPRA Paper 104502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Cristiana Benedetti Fasil & Petr Sedlacek & Vincent Sterk, 2020. "EU start-up calculator: impact of COVID-19 on aggregate employment: Scenario analysis for Austria, Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Italy and Spain," JRC Research Reports JRC121715, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Stelios Giannoulakis, 2021. "Uncertainty, firm entry, and investment dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(5), pages 623-642, November.
    15. Cavallari, Lilia & Romano, Simone & Naticchioni, Paolo, 2021. "The original sin: Firms’ dynamics and the life-cycle consequences of economic conditions at birth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Thibaut Duprey & Daniel E. Rigobon & Philip Schnattinger & Artur Kotlicki & Soheil Baharian & T. R. Hurd, 2022. "Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places," Staff Working Papers 22-1, Bank of Canada.
    17. Cerqua, Augusto & Letta, Marco, 2020. "Local economies amidst the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: a tale of diverging trajectories," MPRA Paper 104404, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm age; Firm dynamics; Heterogeneous firms; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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