IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matsoc/v69y2014icp12-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Arab Spring: A simple compartmental model for the dynamics of a revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Lang, J.C.
  • De Sterck, H.

Abstract

We introduce a simple compartmental model for the dynamics of a revolution in dictatorial regimes that employ censorship and police repression. A defining property of the model is the use of visibility and policing terms that feature rapid transitions as a function of the size of the revolution, for which we provide conceptual and network-based mathematical justifications. The complete mathematical classification of the dynamical behaviour of the model leads to a division in parameter space that is interpreted naturally in terms of stability of the regime (stable police state, meta-stable police state, unstable police state, and failed state). We show that these dynamical properties of the model are generic for a broad class of visibility and policing functions that feature rapid transitions. We investigate how the model can be applied to the peaceful revolutions of the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Egypt, taking into account the influence of the Internet and new media on the visibility of the revolution and the ensuing reduced effectivity of censorship. Within the model this leads to significant, discontinuous changes in regime stability, which greatly increase the probability of realized revolutions. These properties of the model inform possible answers to questions on causes and timing of the Arab Spring revolutions, and the role of the Internet and new media. The broader relevance of the model classification is also investigated by applying it to the current political situation in some other countries with regimes that employ censorship and police repression.

Suggested Citation

  • Lang, J.C. & De Sterck, H., 2014. "The Arab Spring: A simple compartmental model for the dynamics of a revolution," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 12-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:12-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2014.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489614000055
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2014.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua M. Epstein, 2008. "Why Model?," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12.
    2. Cullen S Hendrix, 2010. "Measuring state capacity: Theoretical and empirical implications for the study of civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(3), pages 273-285, May.
    3. Nekovee, M. & Moreno, Y. & Bianconi, G. & Marsili, M., 2007. "Theory of rumour spreading in complex social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(1), pages 457-470.
    4. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergei Petrovskii & Weam Alharbi & Abdulqader Alhomairi & Andrew Morozov, 2020. "Modelling Population Dynamics of Social Protests in Time and Space: The Reaction-Diffusion Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Carmen Camacho & Waleed Hassan, 2023. "People Get Ready: Optimal timing of Revolution," PSE Working Papers halshs-03372991, HAL.
    3. Andrey Korotayev & Leonid Grinin & Leonid Issaev & Alisa Shishkina & Evgeny Ivanov & Kira Meshcherina, 2017. "World Order Transformation and Sociopolitical Destabilization," HSE Working papers WP BRP 29/IR/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Carmen Camacho & Waleed Hassan, 2023. "People Get Ready: Optimal timing of Revolution," Working Papers halshs-03372991, HAL.
    5. Ngo Van Long, 2019. "Managing, Inducing, and Preventing Regime Shifts: A Review of the Literature," CESifo Working Paper Series 7749, CESifo.
    6. Hubert Janos Kiss & Ismael Rodríguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-García, 2017. "Overthrowing the dictator: a game-theoretic approach to revolutions and media," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 49(2), pages 329-355, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    2. Philip Arena & Brian Hardt, 2014. "Incentives to Rebel, Bargaining, and Civil War," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 127-141, January.
    3. Bodea, Cristina & Higashijima, Masaaki & Singh, Raju Jan, 2016. "Oil and Civil Conflict: Can Public Spending Have a Mitigation Effect?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Cingolani, Luciana & Thomsson, Kaj & de Crombrugghe, Denis, 2015. "Minding Weber More Than Ever? The Impacts of State Capacity and Bureaucratic Autonomy on Development Goals," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-207.
    5. Wakako Maekawa & Barış Arı & Theodora-Ismene Gizelis, 2019. "UN involvement and civil war peace agreement implementation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 397-416, March.
    6. Brast, Benjamin, 2017. "Liberal Statebuilding Interventions and the Monopoly on Violence," SocArXiv yqk9v, Center for Open Science.
    7. Helge Holtermann, 2011. "Explaining the Development-Civil War Relationship," LIS Working papers 566, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    8. Seitz, William Hutchins, 2016. "Stock market reactions to conflict diamond trading restrictions and controversies," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 63-84, April.
    9. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    10. Huo, Liang’an & Chen, Sijing, 2020. "Rumor propagation model with consideration of scientific knowledge level and social reinforcement in heterogeneous network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).
    11. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    12. Mare Sarr & Erwin Bulte & Chris Meissner & Tim Swanson, 2011. "On the looting of nations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 148(3), pages 353-380, September.
    13. Indra de Soysa & Synøve Almås, 2019. "Does Ethnolinguistic Diversity Preclude Good Governance? A Comparative Study with Alternative Data, 1990‐2015," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 604-636, November.
    14. Kjetil Bjorvatn & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Resource Rents, Power, and Political Stability," CESifo Working Paper Series 4727, CESifo.
    15. Marktanner Marcus & Makdisi Samir, 2008. "Development against All Odds? The Case of Lebanon," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 101-133, September.
    16. Li, Dandan & Ma, Jing, 2017. "How the government’s punishment and individual’s sensitivity affect the rumor spreading in online social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 284-292.
    17. Thiemo Fetzer & Samuel Marden, 2017. "Take What You Can: Property Rights, Contestability and Conflict," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(601), pages 757-783, May.
    18. Ciccone, Antonio, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 12625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Tadadjeu, Sosson & Njangang, Henri & Asongu, Simplice A. & Kamguia, Brice, 2023. "Natural resources, child mortality and governance quality in African countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Hosni, Adil Imad Eddine & Li, Kan & Ahmad, Sadique, 2020. "Analysis of the impact of online social networks addiction on the propagation of rumors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:12-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505565 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.