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Hedging house price risk in the presence of lumpy transaction costs

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  • Han, Lu
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a life-cycle model of housing demand with uncertain house prices and lumpy transaction costs. The paper extends the (S,s) methodology to a non-stationary discrete time framework with multivariate stochastic price processes. This allows the characterization of a self-hedging mechanism in an incomplete housing market: households use earlier accumulated housing wealth to hedge against future housing cost risk. As a result, the direction of the effect of price uncertainty on housing demand depends critically on households' future housing consumption plans. When price uncertainty increases, households consume (and thereby invest in) less housing if they plan to realize the housing wealth gain. However, they will instead take a larger housing position if they plan to move to a bigger home in a correlated housing market in the future.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WMG-4RSBXW2-1/2/8e32f02016a256c3d723395daa5e3dba
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

    Volume (Year): 64 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (September)
    Pages: 270-287

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:64:y:2008:i:2:p:270-287

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

    Related research

    Keywords: Housing demand under price uncertainty Hedge Life cycle;

    References

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    1. Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss, 1994. "Home Equity Insurance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1074, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Aggregation and Optimization with State-Dependent Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1595, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2003. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," NBER Working Papers 9462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 2002. "The Impact of Transaction Costs and the Expected Length of Stay on Homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 563-584, May.
    5. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
    6. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1992. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Working Papers 9202, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    7. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    8. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2007. "The Life-Cycle Effects of House Price Changes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1375-1409, 09.
    9. Sanford J Grossman & Guy Laroque, 2003. "Asset Pricing and Optimal Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Illiquid Durable Consumption Goods," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000803, David K. Levine.
    10. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.
    11. Hoyt, William H & Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1990. "Capital Gains Taxation and the Demand for Owner-Occupied Housing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 45-54, February.
    12. Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M, 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-200, Jan.-Marc.
    13. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711.
    14. Berkovec, James & Fullerton, Don, 1992. "A General Equilibrium Model of Housing, Taxes, and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 390-429, April.
    15. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    16. Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Haurin, Donald R. & Chung, Eui-Chul, 1998. "The Demand for Owner-Occupied Housing: Implications from Intertemporal Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 49-68, March.
    18. Allen C. Goodman, 1990. "Modeling and Computing Transactions Costs for Purchasers of Housing Services," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21.
    19. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Michael Amior & Jonathan Halket, 2011. "Do Households Use Homeownership To Insure Themselves? Evidence across US Cities," 2011 Meeting Papers 276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2013. "Online Appendix to "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Technical Appendices 12-89, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    3. Jonathan Halket, 2009. "Home Ownership, Savings and Mobility Over The Life Cycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 295, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. M.I. Dröes & H. Garretsen & W.J.J. Manshanden, 2012. "The Diversification Benefits of Free Trade in House Value," Working Papers 12-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Andrew Paciorek & Todd M. Sinai, 2010. "Does Home Owning Smooth the Variability of Future Housing Consumption?," NBER Working Papers 16531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lynn Wu & Erik Brynjolfsson, 2014. "The Future of Prediction: How Google Searches Foreshadow Housing Prices and Sales," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Digitization National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dröes, Martijn I. & Hassink, Wolter H.J., 2013. "House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 92-99.

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