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Hedging house price risk in the presence of lumpy transaction costs

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  • Han, Lu
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a life-cycle model of housing demand with uncertain house prices and lumpy transaction costs. The paper extends the (S,s) methodology to a non-stationary discrete time framework with multivariate stochastic price processes. This allows the characterization of a self-hedging mechanism in an incomplete housing market: households use earlier accumulated housing wealth to hedge against future housing cost risk. As a result, the direction of the effect of price uncertainty on housing demand depends critically on households' future housing consumption plans. When price uncertainty increases, households consume (and thereby invest in) less housing if they plan to realize the housing wealth gain. However, they will instead take a larger housing position if they plan to move to a bigger home in a correlated housing market in the future.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

    Volume (Year): 64 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 (September)
    Pages: 270-287

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:64:y:2008:i:2:p:270-287

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622905

    Related research

    Keywords: Housing demand under price uncertainty Hedge Life cycle;

    References

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    1. Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M., 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt06t5d6v0, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    2. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 1997. "Aggregation and Optimization with State-Dependent Pricing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 601-626, May.
    3. Haurin, Donald R. & Chung, Eui-Chul, 1998. "The Demand for Owner-Occupied Housing: Implications from Intertemporal Analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 49-68, March.
    4. Sanford J Grossman & Guy Laroque, 2003. "Asset Pricing and Optimal Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Illiquid Durable Consumption Goods," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000803, David K. Levine.
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    7. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 763-789, May.
    8. Shiller, Robert J & Weiss, Allan N, 1999. "Home Equity Insurance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-47, July.
    9. Allen C. Goodman, 1990. "Modeling and Computing Transactions Costs for Purchasers of Housing Services," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21.
    10. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    11. Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529, July.
    13. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
    14. James Berkovec & Don Fullerton, 1993. "A General Equilibrium Model of Housing, Taxes, and Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 3505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2002. "Tenure choice and the riskiness of non-housing consumption," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 266-279, September.
    16. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2007. "The Life-Cycle Effects of House Price Changes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1375-1409, 09.
    17. Henderson, J Vernon & Ioannides, Yannis M, 1983. "A Model of Housing Tenure Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 98-113, March.
    18. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
    19. Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 2002. "The Impact of Transaction Costs and the Expected Length of Stay on Homeownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 563-584, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Paciorek, Andrew & Sinai, Todd, 2012. "Does home owning smooth the variability of future housing consumption?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 244-257.
    2. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2013. "Online Appendix to "Saving Up or Settling Down: Home Ownership over the Life Cycle," Technical Appendices 12-89, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    3. Dröes, Martijn I. & Hassink, Wolter H.J., 2013. "House price risk and the hedging benefits of home ownership," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 92-99.
    4. M.I. Dröes & H. Garretsen & W.J.J. Manshanden, 2012. "The Diversification Benefits of Free Trade in House Value," Working Papers 12-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Lynn Wu & Erik Brynjolfsson, 2014. "The Future of Prediction: How Google Searches Foreshadow Housing Prices and Sales," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Digitization National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael Amior & Jonathan Halket, 2011. "Do Households Use Homeownership To Insure Themselves? Evidence across US Cities," 2011 Meeting Papers 276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Jonathan Halket & Santhanagopalan Vasudev, 2012. "Home Ownership, Savings, and Mobility Over The Life Cycle," Economics Discussion Papers 712, University of Essex, Department of Economics.

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