IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v77y2022ics0301420722001635.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining the efficiency and herding behavior of commodity markets using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical evidence from energy, agriculture, and metal markets

Author

Listed:
  • Memon, Bilal Ahmed
  • Yao, Hongxing
  • Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad

Abstract

We examine the efficiency and herding behavior between four energy markets (Crude, Brent, Gasoline, and Natural gas), five agriculture markets (Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Cocoa, and Coffee), and three metal markets (Gold, Silver, and Copper) using multifractal detrended fluctuation method. In addition to the full sample, the analysis also uses two most critical sub-periods of GFC 2007-09 and COVID-19 to reveal hidden features and herding patterns of the commodity markets. The results indicate existence of strong multifractality patterns and resultant inefficiency with varied degrees in the commodity markets. We find highest inefficiency in the copper market, followed by silver market. While cocoa remains most efficient commodity market during the entire period of study. In addition, energy markets remain more efficient compared to the rest of the two groups. Furthermore, the results confirm that crises events impact the efficiency of commodity markets significantly, and persistence behavior with a trace of herding is found in some of the markets. Whereas, silver and gold serve as useful hedging instruments during the crises. Our study is useful for risk management, regulatory supervision, and effective decision making for investors related to investments in the commodity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Memon, Bilal Ahmed & Yao, Hongxing & Naveed, Hafiz Muhammad, 2022. "Examining the efficiency and herding behavior of commodity markets using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical evidence from energy, agriculture, and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:77:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722001635
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102715
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420722001635
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102715?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2020. "Stock return-inflation nexus; revisited evidence based on nonlinear ARDL," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 66-74, January.
    2. Rossitsa Yalamova, 2006. "Wavelet Test of Multifractality of Asia-Pacific Index Price Series," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83.
    3. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L. & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2021. "Price overreactions in the commodity futures market: An intraday analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic impact," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Yonghong Jiang & Mengmeng Yu & Shabir Mohsin Hashmi, 2017. "The Financial Crisis and Co-Movement of Global Stock Markets—A Case of Six Major Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Khuntia, Sashikanta & Pattanayak, J.K., 2020. "Adaptive long memory in volatility of intra-day bitcoin returns and the impact of trading volume," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    6. Mnif, Emna & Jarboui, Anis & Mouakhar, Khaireddine, 2020. "How the cryptocurrency market has performed during COVID 19? A multifractal analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    7. Kuruppuarachchi, Duminda & Lin, Hai & Premachandra, I.M., 2019. "Testing commodity futures market efficiency under time-varying risk premiums and heteroscedastic prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 92-112.
    8. Maganini, Natália Diniz & Da Silva Filho, Antônio Carlos & Lima, Fabiano Guasti, 2018. "Investigation of multifractality in the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 497(C), pages 258-271.
    9. Zhang, Dayong & Broadstock, David C., 2020. "Global financial crisis and rising connectedness in the international commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Liu, Hongzhi & Zhang, Xingchen & Zhang, Xie, 2020. "Multiscale multifractal analysis on air traffic flow time series: A single airport departure flight case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    11. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    12. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2014. "Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 235-244.
    13. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2011. "Multifractal detrending moving average cross-correlation analysis," Papers 1103.2577, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    14. Coronado Ramírez Semei & Celso Arellano Pedro Luis & Rojas Omar, 2015. "Adaptive market efficiency of agricultural commodity futures contracts," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 60(2), pages 389-401, abril-jun.
    15. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    16. Tao Yin & Yiming Wang, 2021. "Market Efficiency and Nonlinear Analysis of Soybean Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-10, January.
    17. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    18. Lyu, Yongjian & Yi, Heling & Hu, Yingyi & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Economic uncertainty shocks and China's commodity futures returns: A time-varying perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Lucey, Brian M. & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Is gold a hedge or a safe-haven asset in the COVID–19 crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    20. Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Hassan, M. Kabir & Rashid, Md. Mamunur & Alhenawi, Yasser, 2021. "Are safe haven assets really safe during the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    21. Mali, Provash & Mukhopadhyay, Amitabha, 2014. "Multifractal characterization of gold market: A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 361-372.
    22. Anagnostidis, P. & Varsakelis, C. & Emmanouilides, C.J., 2016. "Has the 2008 financial crisis affected stock market efficiency? The case of Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 116-128.
    23. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Bhabani Sankar Rout & Nupur Moni Das & K. Chandrasekhara Rao, 2021. "Functional Effectiveness of Commodity Futures Market: A Comparative Assessment of Agricultural and Metal Commodities," Paradigm, , vol. 25(1), pages 42-60, June.
    25. Ortiz-Cruz, Alejandro & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Ibarra-Valdez, Carlos & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2012. "Efficiency of crude oil markets: Evidences from informational entropy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-373.
    26. Wang, Lei & Liu, Lutao, 2020. "Long-range correlation and predictability of Chinese stock prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    27. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    28. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Safe haven, hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 212-224.
    29. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    30. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2010. "Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(16), pages 3218-3229.
    31. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    32. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Bacha, Obiyathulla I. & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "An analysis of stock market efficiency: Developed vs Islamic stock markets using MF-DFA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 86-99.
    33. Bai, Man-Ying & Zhu, Hai-Bo, 2010. "Power law and multiscaling properties of the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1883-1890.
    34. Anders C. Johansson, 2011. "Financial Markets in East Asia and Europe during the Global Financial Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 1088-1105, July.
    35. Ikeda, Taro, 2018. "Multifractal structures for the Russian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 2123-2128.
    36. Mensi, Walid & Sensoy, Ahmet & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on asymmetric multifractality of gold and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    37. Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "The relationship between Asian equity and commodity futures markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 67-75.
    38. Sifat, Imtiaz & Ghafoor, Abdul & Ah Mand, Abdollah, 2021. "The COVID-19 pandemic and speculation in energy, precious metals, and agricultural futures," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    39. Arshad, Shaista & Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Haroon, Omair & Mehmood, Fahad & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Are oil prices efficient?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 362-370.
    40. Semei Coronado-Ram'irez & Pedro Celso-Arellano & Omar Rojas, 2014. "Adaptive Market Efficiency of Agricultural Commodity Futures Contracts," Papers 1412.8017, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    41. Emna Mnif & Anis Jarboui, 2021. "COVID-19, bitcoin market efficiency, herd behaviour," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(1), pages 69-84, March.
    42. Himadri Rajput & Rahil Changotra & Prachi Rajput & Sneha Gautam & Anjani R. K. Gollakota & Amarpreet Singh Arora, 2021. "A shock like no other: coronavirus rattles commodity markets," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6564-6575, May.
    43. Oussama Tilfani & Paulo Ferreira & My Youssef El Boukfaoui, 2021. "Dynamic cross-correlation and dynamic contagion of stock markets: a sliding windows approach with the DCCA correlation coefficient," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1127-1156, March.
    44. Zhang, Bing, 2013. "Are the crude oil markets becoming more efficient over time? New evidence from a generalized spectral test," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 875-881.
    45. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Gu, Rongbao, 2009. "Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 271-276, December.
    46. Amar, Amine Ben & Belaid, Fateh & Youssef, Adel Ben & Chiao, Benjamin & Guesmi, Khaled, 2021. "The unprecedented reaction of equity and commodity markets to COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    47. Stavros Stavroyiannis & Vassilios Babalos, 2017. "Herding, Faith-Based Investments and the Global Financial Crisis: Empirical Evidence From Static and Dynamic Models," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 478-489, October.
    48. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    49. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2011. "Analysis of the efficiency and multifractality of gold markets based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(5), pages 817-827.
    50. Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Movahed, S.M.S., 2017. "Assessment of 48 Stock markets using adaptive multifractal approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 730-750.
    51. Xingguo Luo & Yuting Lin & Xiaoli Yu & Feng He, 2021. "How trading in commodity futures option markets impacts commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1333-1347, August.
    52. Laura Raisa Miloş & Cornel Haţiegan & Marius Cristian Miloş & Flavia Mirela Barna & Claudiu Boțoc, 2020. "Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of Stock Market Indexes. Empirical Evidence from Seven Central and Eastern European Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    53. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects among crude oil, precious metal, and agricultural commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 19-32.
    54. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Financial crises and dynamic spillovers among Chinese stock and commodity futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).
    55. Zunino, L. & Tabak, B.M. & Figliola, A. & Pérez, D.G. & Garavaglia, M. & Rosso, O.A., 2008. "A multifractal approach for stock market inefficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(26), pages 6558-6566.
    56. Khediri, Karim Ben & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2015. "Evolving efficiency of spot and futures energy markets: A rolling sample approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 67-79.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernandes, Leonardo H.S. & de Araujo, Fernando H.A. & Silva, José W.L. & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2022. "Booms in commodities price: Assessing disorder and similarity over economic cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Huang, Menghao & Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deniz Erer & Elif Erer & Selim Güngör, 2023. "The aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey: a comparative analysis with COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Diniz, Eduardo H. & Rasheed, Abdul A., 2021. "Bitcoin’s price efficiency and safe haven properties during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2021. "Analysis of stock market efficiency during crisis periods in the US stock market: Differences between the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    4. Stosic, Dusan & Stosic, Darko & de Mattos Neto, Paulo S.G. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Multifractal characterization of Brazilian market sectors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 956-964.
    5. Yao, Can-Zhong & Mo, Yi-Na & Zhang, Ze-Kun, 2021. "A study of the efficiency of the Chinese clean energy stock market and its correlation with the crude oil market based on an asymmetric multifractal scaling behavior analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Chenyu Han & Yiming Wang & Yingying Xu, 2019. "Efficiency and Multifractality Analysis of the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Stock Indices before and after the 2015 Stock Market Crash," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, March.
    7. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Zhou, Weijie & Dang, Yaoguo & Gu, Rongbao, 2013. "Efficiency and multifractality analysis of CSI 300 based on multifractal detrending moving average algorithm," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1429-1438.
    9. Bhatia, Madhur, 2023. "On the efficiency of the gold returns: An econometric exploration for India, USA and Brazil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Haider Ali & Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira, 2021. "Modeling Dynamic Multifractal Efficiency of US Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
    11. Jiang, Jiaqi & Gu, Rongbao, 2016. "Using Rényi parameter to improve the predictive power of singular value decomposition entropy on stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 448(C), pages 254-264.
    12. Cristina Sattarhoff & Marc Gronwald, 2018. "How to Measure Financial Market Efficiency? A Multifractality-Based Quantitative Approach with an Application to the European Carbon Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 7102, CESifo.
    13. Han, Chenyu & Wang, Yiming & Ning, Ye, 2019. "Comparative analysis of the multifractality and efficiency of exchange markets: Evidence from exchange rates dynamics of major world currencies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Umar, Zaghum & Alqahtani, Faisal, 2021. "Existence of long memory in crude oil and petroleum products: Generalised Hurst exponent approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2018. "Stock market efficiency: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 139-153.
    16. Akash P. POOJARI & Siva Kiran GUPTHA & G Raghavender RAJU, 2022. "Multifractal analysis of equities. Evidence from the emerging and frontier banking sectors," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(632), A), pages 61-80, Autumn.
    17. Okoroafor, Ugochi Chibuzor & Leirvik, Thomas, 2022. "Time varying market efficiency in the Brent and WTI crude market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    18. Clement Moyo & Izunna Anyikwa & Andrew Phiri, 2023. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Oil Market Returns: Has Market Efficiency Being Violated?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 118-127, January.
    19. Laura Raisa Miloş & Cornel Haţiegan & Marius Cristian Miloş & Flavia Mirela Barna & Claudiu Boțoc, 2020. "Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) of Stock Market Indexes. Empirical Evidence from Seven Central and Eastern European Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Diniz-Maganini, Natalia & Rasheed, Abdul A. & Sheng, Hsia Hua, 2023. "Price efficiency of the foreign exchange rates of BRICS countries: A comparative analysis," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:77:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722001635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.