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Time-varying effect of the financialization of nonferrous metals markets on China's industrial sector

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  • Zhou, Ying-Zhe
  • Huang, Jian-Bai
  • Chen, Jin-Yu

Abstract

Based on the model of time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV), we incorporate the financialization of nonferrous metals markets into the analytical framework of multistructural nonferrous metals price shocks and emphatically analyse the time-varying effect of the financialization of nonferrous metals markets on China's industrial sector via the monthly data of copper from August 2006 to December 2016. The results show that financialization of the copper market on China's industrial sector output and price are mostly negative over time. The increase in copper price driven by the financialization of the copper market is the most important cause of the reduction in China's industrial sector output. However, the impact of the financialization of the copper market on China's industrial sector price is relatively small, compared to the impact on China's industrial sector output. In addition, the impact of the financialization of the copper market on China's industrial sector has increased after the international financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Ying-Zhe & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2019. "Time-varying effect of the financialization of nonferrous metals markets on China's industrial sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:64:y:2019:i:c:s0301420718302812
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101481
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