IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v36y2014is1ps132-s150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Edwards, Lawrence
  • Jenkins, Rhys

Abstract

Chinese manufacturing exports to Sub-Saharan Africa challenge South Africa's economic influence in the region. To evaluate this, the paper develops and applies a conceptual framework that distinguishes between the intensive and extensive margins of Chinese export competition. South African exports of new and existing manufactured products to Sub-Saharan Africa are found to have been negatively affected by Chinese competition relative to exports from other countries. Consequently, South Africa's exports to the region in 2010 were 20% lower than they would have been if they had been affected to the same degree as other countries. The crowding-out effects are found to be strongest in medium- and low-technology products. Overall, the data suggest that Chinese exports of manufactures have diminished South Africa's participation and economic influence in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:36:y:2014:i:s1:p:s132-s150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.10.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893813000975
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.10.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oyejide Titiloye Ademola & Abiodun S Bankole & Adeolu O Adewuyi, 2009. "China–Africa Trade Relations: Insights from AERC Scoping Studies," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 21(4), pages 485-505, September.
    2. Andrea Goldstein & Nicolas Pinaud & Helmut Reisen, 2006. "The Rise of China and India: What's in it for Africa?," OECD Development Centre Policy Insights 19, OECD Publishing.
    3. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    4. Lucy Corkin, 2008. "Competition or Collaboration? Chinese & South African Transnational Companies in Africa," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(115), pages 128-133, March.
    5. Yeats, Alexander J, 1990. "On the Accuracy of Economic Observations: Do Sub-Saharan Trade Statistics Mean Anything?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 4(2), pages 135-156, May.
    6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    7. David Greenaway & Aruneema Mahabir & Chris Milner, 2010. "Has China Displaced Other Asian Countries’ Exports?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Greenaway & Chris Milner & Shujie Yao (ed.), China and the World Economy, chapter 4, pages 60-90, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 647-678.
    9. Mary Amiti & Caroline Freund, 2010. "The Anatomy of China's Export Growth," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 35-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Raphael Kaplinsky & Amelia Santos Paulino, 2005. "Innovation and Competitiveness: Trends in Unit Prices in Global Trade," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-355.
    11. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Peter K. Schott, 2008. "The relative sophistication of Chinese exports [‘Manufacturing Earnings and Compensation in China’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(53), pages 6-49.
    15. Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1351-1366, October.
    16. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
    17. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," Post-Print hal-03579844, HAL.
    18. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
    19. Jenkins, Rhys & Edwards, Chris, 2006. "The economic impacts of China and India on sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and prospects," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-225, April.
    20. Daniel Lederman & Marcelo Olarreaga & Guillermo E. Perry, 2009. "China's and India's Challenge to Latin America : Opportunity or Threat?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2591, December.
    21. Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo, 2009. "Do Chinese Exports Crowd-out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 21(4), pages 506-530, September.
    23. Kaplinsky, Raphael, 2006. "Revisiting the revisited terms of trade: Will China make a difference?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 981-995, June.
    24. Harry G. Broadman, 2007. "Africa's Silk Road : China and India's New Economic Frontier," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7186, December.
    25. Letizia Montinari & Giorgio Prodi, 2011. "China's Impact on Intra-African Trade," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 75-91, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2023. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited: The Case of the East African Community," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(6), pages 4-32, November.
    2. Christian Darko & Giovanni Occhiali & Enrico Vanino, 2021. "The Chinese are Here: Import Penetration and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 2112-2135, December.
    3. Larry D. Qiu & Chaoqun Zhan, 2016. "Special Section: China's Growing Trade and its Role to the World Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 45-71, February.
    4. Kafilah Lola GOLD & Rajah RASIAH & Kian Teng KWEK & Murtala MUHAMMAD, 2020. "Export Determinants of China’s FDI in Africa: Empirical Evidence from Oil/Minerals Exporting African Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 119-133, September.
    5. Cunha, André Moreira & Lélis, Marcos Tadeu Caputi & Haines, Andrés Ernesto Ferrari & Franke, Luciane, 2023. "Exports of manufactured goods and structural change: Brazil in the face of Chinese competition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-12.
    6. Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2018. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited," IFRO Working Paper 2018/02, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    7. Richmond Atta-Ankomah, 2015. "Chinese Technologies and pro-poor industrialisation in Sub Saharan Africa: The case of furniture manufacturing in Kenya," Globelics Working Paper Series 2015-15, Globelics - Global Network for Economics of Learning, Innovation, and Competence Building Systems, Aalborg University, Department of Business and Management.
    8. Débora Bellucci Módolo & Celio Hiratuka, 2017. "The impact of Chinese competition on third markets: An analysis by region and technological category," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35(6), pages 797-821, November.
    9. Darko, Christian K. & Occhiali, Giovanni & Vanino, Enrico, 2018. "The Chinese are Here: Firm Level Analysis of Import Competition and Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 273142, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Sofia Torreggiani & Antonio Andreoni, 2019. "Dancing with dragons: Chinese import penetration and the performances of manufacturing firms in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Artecona, Raquel & Perrotti, Daniel E. & Welslau, Lennard, 2022. "China and Latin America and the Caribbean: Exports competition in the United States market," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington 48356, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2017. "South–South And North–South Economic Exchanges: Does It Matter Who Is Exchanging What And With Whom?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1449-1486, December.
    13. Kafilah Lola Gold, 2022. "The determinant of Chinese foreign direct investments in oil exporting African countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 476-490, July.
    14. Torreggiani, Sofia & Andreoni, Antonio, 2023. "Rising to the challenge or perish? Chinese import penetration and its impact on growth dynamics of manufacturing firms in South Africa," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 199-212.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoke Fong Kong & Richard Kneller, 2016. "Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 195-220, February.
    2. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    3. Raphael A. Auer, 2013. "Product Heterogeneity, Cross-Country Taste Differences, and the Consumption Home Bias," Working Papers 13.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    4. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Donghyun & Wang, Jing, 2013. "Different types of firms, different types of products, and their dynamics: An anatomy of China's imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 62-77.
    5. Nguyen, Huong, 2016. "China’s Agricultural Exports and their Effects on other Exporters," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235901, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Fu, Xiaolan & Kaplinsky, Raphael & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "The Impact of China on Low and Middle Income Countries’ Export Prices in Industrial-Country Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1483-1496.
    7. shepherd, Ben, 2010. "Geographical Diversification of Developing Country Exports," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1217-1228, September.
    8. Luis Castro & Ben G. Li & Keith E. Maskus & Yiqing Xie, 2016. "Fixed Export Costs and Export Behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 300-320, July.
    9. Mau, Karsten, 2017. "US policy spillover(?) – China’s accession to the WTO and rising exports to the EU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 169-188.
    10. Hillberry, Russell & Hummels, David, 2013. "Trade Elasticity Parameters for a Computable General Equilibrium Model," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1213-1269, Elsevier.
    11. Raphael A. Auer, 2009. "Taste Heterogeneity, Trade, and the Within-Industry Home Market Effect," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(IV), pages 387-403, December.
    12. Giorgia Giovannetti, Marco Sanfilippo and Margherita Velucchi, 2012. "The impact of China on manufacturing exports of Italy and Germany," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/26, European University Institute.
    13. Filip Abraham & Jan Van Hove, 2010. "Can Belgian firms cope with the Chinese dragon and the Asian tigers ? The export performance of multi-product firms on foreign markets," Working Paper Research 204, National Bank of Belgium.
    14. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    15. Jarreau, Joachim & Poncet, Sandra, 2012. "Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 281-292.
    16. Antoine Gervais, 2015. "Product quality, firm heterogeneity and trade liberalization," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 523-541, June.
    17. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Gino Gancia, 2018. "Firms and Economic Performance: A view from Trade," Working Papers 1034, Barcelona School of Economics.
    18. Gao, Yue & Whalley, John & Ren, Yonglei, 2014. "Decomposing China's export growth into extensive margin, export quality and quantity effects," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 19-26.
    19. Chen, Natalie & Novy, Dennis, 2008. "International Trade Integration: A Disaggregated Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Martina Lawless, 2010. "Deconstructing gravity: trade costs and extensive and intensive margins," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1149-1172, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; China; Sub-Saharan Africa; Export competition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:36:y:2014:i:s1:p:s132-s150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.