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The impact of COVID-19 on the evolution of online retail: The pandemic as a window of opportunity

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  • Szász, Levente
  • Bálint, Csaba
  • Csíki, Ottó
  • Nagy, Bálint Zsolt
  • Rácz, Béla-Gergely
  • Csala, Dénes
  • Harris, Lloyd C.

Abstract

Pandemic-related shocks have induced an unexpected volatility into the evolution of online sales, making it difficult for retailers to cope with frequently occurring, drastic changes in demand. Relying on a socio-technical approach, the purpose of this paper is to (a) offer a deeper insight into the driving forces of online sales during the pandemic, and (b) investigate whether pandemic-related shocks accelerate the long-term growth of online retail. Novel, high-frequency data on GPS-based population mobility and government stringency is used to demonstrate how time spent in residential areas and governmental restrictions drive the monthly evolution of online sales in 23 countries. We deconstruct these effects into three main phases: lure-in, lock-in, and phase-out. Lastly, using time series analysis, we show that the pandemic has induced a level shift into the long-term growth trend of the online retail sector in the majority of countries investigated.

Suggested Citation

  • Szász, Levente & Bálint, Csaba & Csíki, Ottó & Nagy, Bálint Zsolt & Rácz, Béla-Gergely & Csala, Dénes & Harris, Lloyd C., 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the evolution of online retail: The pandemic as a window of opportunity," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joreco:v:69:y:2022:i:c:s0969698922001825
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jretconser.2022.103089
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    2. Milagros Ambrosio-Pérez & Michael Cabanillas-Carbonell & Orlando Iparraguirre-Villanueva, 2023. "Analysis of the Impact of the Pandemic on the Growth, Use, and Development of E-Business: A Systematic Review of the Literature," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Benedek Nagy & Manuela Rozalia Gabor & Ioan Bogdan Baco? & Moaaz Kabil & Kai Zhu & Lóránt Dénes Dávid, 2023. "Google and apple mobility data as predictors for European tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic: A neural network approach," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(2), pages 419-459, June.
    4. Rodríguez-Priego, Nuria & Porcu, Lucia & Prados Peña, María Belén & Crespo Almendros, Esmeralda, 2023. "Perceived customer care and privacy protection behavior: The mediating role of trust in self-disclosure," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
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    6. Ruíz-Rúa, Aurora & Fernández-Bonilla, Fernando & Gijón, Covadonga, 2023. "Why do we consume as we do? The case of ICT spending in the Spanish market," 32nd European Regional ITS Conference, Madrid 2023: Realising the digital decade in the European Union – Easier said than done? 278016, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).

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