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Assessment of model uncertainty in destinations and travel forecasts of models of complex spatial shopping behaviour

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  • Rasouli, Soora
  • Timmermans, Harry

Abstract

This paper reports the results of an analysis of model uncertainty in the context of shopping behaviour. This analysis is positioned in a discussion on the evolution of models of spatial shopping behaviour. For different generations of shopping models, the potential of uncertainty analysis is discussed. The actual analysis is based on an application of the Albatross model to the city of Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Characteristic of this model is that shopping trips are embedded in the prediction of daily more comprehensive activity-travel patterns, adding complexity and realism to traditional models of spatial shopping behaviour, such as the Huff and spatial interaction model. Results show that overall the uncertainty associated with the aggregate outcomes of the model is small. It is higher for the total number of visits to selected shopping areas.

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  • Rasouli, Soora & Timmermans, Harry, 2013. "Assessment of model uncertainty in destinations and travel forecasts of models of complex spatial shopping behaviour," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joreco:v:20:y:2013:i:2:p:139-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jretconser.2012.05.001
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    4. Kristoffersson, Ida & Daly, Andrew & Algers, Staffan, 2018. "Modelling the attraction of travel to shopping destinations in large-scale modelling," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 52-62.
    5. Kristoffersson, Ida & Daly, Andrew & Algers, Staffan, 2017. "Modelling the attraction of shopping centres," Working papers in Transport Economics 2017:1, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    6. Formánek, Tomáš & Sokol, Ondřej, 2022. "Location effects: Geo-spatial and socio-demographic determinants of sales dynamics in brick-and-mortar retail stores," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    8. Wieland, Thomas, 2014. "Räumliches Einkaufsverhalten und Standortpolitik im Einzelhandel unter Berücksichtigung von Agglomerationseffekten: Theoretische Erklärungsansätze, modellanalytische Zugänge und eine empirisch-ökonome," MPRA Paper 77163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. ELSamen, Amjad Ahmad Abu & Hiyasat, Rund Ibrahim, 2017. "Beyond the random location of shopping malls: A GIS perspective in Amman, Jordan," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 30-37.
    10. Soora Rasouli & Harry Timmermans, 2013. "Probabilistic forecasting of time-dependent origin-destination matrices by a complex activity-based model system: effects of model uncertainty," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 350-361, November.
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