Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques
AbstractThe recent crisis highlighted, once again, the importance of early warning models to assess the soundness of individual banks. In the present study, we use six quantitative techniques originating from various disciplines to classify banks in three groups. The first group includes very strong and strong banks; the second one includes adequate banks, while the third group includes banks with weaknesses or serious problems. We compare models developed with financial variables only, with models that incorporate additional information in relation to the regulatory environment, institutional development, and macroeconomic conditions. The accuracy of classification of the models that include only financial variables is rather poor. We observe a substantial improvement in accuracy when we consider the country-level variables, with five out of the six models achieving out-of-sample classification accuracy above 70% on average. The models developed with multi-criteria decision aid and artificial neural networks achieve the highest accuracies. We also explore the development of stacked models that combine the predictions of the individual models at a higher level. While the stacked models outperform the corresponding individual models in most cases, we found no evidence that the best stacked model can outperform the best individual model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Omega.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/375/description#description
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
- Yuliya Demyanyk & Iftekhar Hasan, 2009.
"Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods,"
0904, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
- Demyanyk , Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Research Discussion Papers 35/2009, Bank of Finland.
- Marc J. K. De Ceuster & Nancy Masschelein, 2003. "Regulating Banks through Market Discipline: A Survey of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 749-766, December.
- Malhotra, Rashmi & Malhotra, D. K., 2003. "Evaluating consumer loans using neural networks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 83-96, April.
- Evrensel, Ayse Y., 2008. "Banking crisis and financial structure: A survival-time analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 589-602, October.
- Beck, T.H.L. & Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R., 2006.
"Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125498, Tilburg University.
- Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
- Yao, Jingtao & Li, Yili & Tan, Chew Lim, 2000. "Option price forecasting using neural networks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 455-466, August.
- Gutiérrez, P.A. & Segovia-Vargas, M.J. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Hervás-Martínez, C. & Sanchis, A. & Portilla-Figueras, J.A. & Fernández-Navarro, F., 2010. "Hybridizing logistic regression with product unit and RBF networks for accurate detection and prediction of banking crises," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 333-344, October.
- Winnie P. H. Poon & Michael Firth, 2005. "Are Unsolicited Credit Ratings Lower? International Evidence From Bank Ratings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(9-10), pages 1741-1771.
- Doumpos, Michael & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2004. "Developing sorting models using preference disaggregation analysis: An experimental investigation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 154(3), pages 585-598, May.
- Liang, Nellie, 1989. "Bank profits, risk, and local market concentration," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 297-305, November.
- Calomiris, Charles W., 1999. "Building an incentive-compatible safety net," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1499-1519, October.
- Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
- Demirgüç-Kunt, AslI & Detragiache, Enrica & Tressel, Thierry, 2008.
"Banking on the principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and bank soundness,"
Journal of Financial Intermediation,
Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 511-542, October.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Tressel, Thierry, 2006. "Banking on the principles : compliance with Basel Core Principles and bank soundness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3954, The World Bank.
- Enrica Detragiache & Thierry Tressel & Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt, 2006. "Banking on the Principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and Bank Soundness," IMF Working Papers 06/242, International Monetary Fund.
- Gehrig, Thomas, 1998.
"Screening, cross-border banking, and the allocation of credit,"
Research in Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 387-407, December.
- Gehrig, Thomas, 1998. "Screening, Cross-Border Banking and the Allocation of Credit," CEPR Discussion Papers 1973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Indro, D. C. & Jiang, C. X. & Patuwo, B. E. & Zhang, G. P., 1999. "Predicting mutual fund performance using artificial neural networks," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 373-380, June.
- Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
- Paul Hamalainen, 2004.
"Mandatory Subordinated Debt and the Corporate Governance of Banks,"
Corporate Governance: An International Review,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 93-106, 01.
- Paul Hamalainen & Maximilian Hall & Barry Howcroft, 2005. "A Framework for Market Discipline in Bank Regulatory Design," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 183-209.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
- Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999.
"A new database on financial development and structure,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2146, The World Bank.
- Beck, T.H.L. & Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R., 2000. "A new database on financial development and structure," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3125518, Tilburg University.
- Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Michael Doumpos, 2007. "A multicriteria discrimination approach for the credit rating of Asian banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 351-367, July.
- Fotios Pasiouras & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2006. "The impact of bank regulations, supervision, market structure, and bank characteristics on individual bank ratings: A cross-country analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 403-438, December.
- Tam, KY, 1991. "Neural network models and the prediction of bank bankruptcy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 429-445.
- Poon, Winnie P. H. & Firth, Michael & Fung, Hung-Gay, 1999. "A multivariate analysis of the determinants of Moody's bank financial strength ratings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 267-283, August.
- James R. Barth & Luis G. Dopico & Daniel E. Nolle & James A. Wilcox, 2002. "Bank Safety and Soundness and the Structure of Bank Supervision: A Cross-Country Analysis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 3(3-4), pages 163-188.
- Anne Beatty & Anne Gron, 2001. "Capital, Portfolio, and Growth: Bank Behavior Under Risk-Based Capital Guidelines," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 5-31, September.
- Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
- Zhang, Gioqinang & Hu, Michael Y., 1998. "Neural network forecasting of the British Pound/US Dollar exchange rate," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 495-506, August.
- Koehn, Michael & Santomero, Anthony M, 1980. " Regulation of Bank Capital and Portfolio Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(5), pages 1235-44, December.
- John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicolã, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, 06.
- Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba, 2008. "Comparing early warning systems for banking crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 89-120, June.
- Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Financial liberalization, prudential supervision, and the onset of banking crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 341-359, September.
- Fernandez, Ana I. & Gonzalez, Francisco, 2005. "How accounting and auditing systems can counteract risk-shifting of safety-nets in banking: Some international evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 466-500, October.
- Constantin Zopounidis & Michael Doumpos, 2013. "Multicriteria decision systems for financial problems," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 241-261, July.
- Carlos Serrano-Cinca & Y. Fuertes-Callén & Begoña Gutiérrez-Nieto & B. Cuéllar-Fernández, 2011. "Path modeling to bankruptcy: causes and symptoms of the banking crisis," Working Papers CEB 11-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.