Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Informed trading before analyst downgrades: Evidence from short sellers

Contents:

Author Info

  • Christophe, Stephen E.
  • Ferri, Michael G.
  • Hsieh, Jim
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper studies short-selling prior to the release of analyst downgrades in a sample of 670 downgrades of Nasdaq stocks between 2000 and 2001. We find abnormal levels of short-selling in the three days before downgrades are publicly announced. Further, we show that this pre-announcement abnormal short-selling is significantly related to the subsequent share price reaction to the downgrade, and especially so for downgrades that prompt the most substantial price declines. Our findings are robust to various controls that might also affect short-selling such as pre-announcement momentum, three-day pre-announcement returns, and announcement-day share price. In addition, the results are independent of scheduled earnings announcements, analyst herding, and non-routine events near downgrades. Further evidence suggests that tipping is more consistent with the data than the prediction explanation which posits that short sellers successfully predict downgrades on the basis of public information about firms' financial health. Finally, we present evidence that downgraded stocks with high abnormal short-selling perform poorly over the subsequent six months by comparison with those with low abnormal short-selling. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that short sellers are informed traders and exploit profitable opportunities provided by downgrade announcements.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VBX-4X4Y292-2/2/55ff09bd2f1bd50bcb1a9d66e3f89e9b
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 95 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 85-106

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:95:y:2010:i:1:p:85-106

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

    Related research

    Keywords: Short sale Analyst downgrades Informed trading;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Joonghyuk Kim & Susan D. Krische & Charles M. C. Lee, 2004. "Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1083-1124, 06.
    2. Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou-Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, 09.
    3. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    4. Brad Barber, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, 04.
    5. Green, T. Clifton, 2006. "The Value of Client Access to Analyst Recommendations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Loughran, Tim & Ritter, Jay R., 2000. "Uniformly least powerful tests of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 361-389, March.
    7. Ekkehart Boehmer & Charles M. Jones & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2008. "Which Shorts Are Informed?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 491-527, 04.
    8. Stephen E. Christophe & Michael G. Ferri & James J. Angel, 2004. "Short-Selling Prior to Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1845-1876, 08.
    9. Asquith, Paul & Pathak, Parag A. & Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Short interest, institutional ownership, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 243-276, November.
    10. Hemang Desai & K. Ramesh & S. Ramu Thiagarajan & Bala V. Balachandran, 2002. "An Investigation of the Informational Role of Short Interest in the Nasdaq Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2263-2287, October.
    11. Mark T. Bradshaw, 2002. "GAAP versus The Street: An Empirical Assessment of Two Alternative Definitions of Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 41-66, 03.
    12. Karl B. Diether & Kuan-Hui Lee & Ingrid M. Werner, 2009. "Short-Sale Strategies and Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 575-607, February.
    13. Bhushan, Ravi, 1989. "Firm characteristics and analyst following," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2-3), pages 255-274, July.
    14. Dechow, Patricia M. & Hutton, Amy P. & Meulbroek, Lisa & Sloan, Richard G., 2001. "Short-sellers, fundamental analysis, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 77-106, July.
    15. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Herding among security analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 369-396, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Blau, Benjamin M. & Wade, Chip, 2012. "Informed or speculative: Short selling analyst recommendations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 14-25.
    2. Lynch, Andrew & Nikolic, Biljana & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling) & Yu, Han, 2014. "Aggregate short selling, commonality, and stock market returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 199-229.
    3. Chakrabarty, Bidisha & Shkilko, Andriy, 2013. "Information transfers and learning in financial markets: Evidence from short selling around insider sales," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1560-1572.
    4. Hoechle, Daniel & Schaub, nic & Schmid, Markus, 2012. "Time Stamp Errors and the Stock Price Reaction to Analyst Recommendation and Forecasts Revisions," Working Papers on Finance 1215, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Oct 2013.
    5. Benjamin Blau & Chip Wade, 2013. "Comparing the information in short sales and put options," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 567-583, October.
    6. Blau, Benjamin M. & Van Ness, Robert A. & Warr, Richard S., 2012. "Short selling of ADRs and foreign market short-sale constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 886-897.
    7. Alexander Ljungqvist & Wenlan Qian, 2014. "How Constraining Are Limits to Arbitrage? Evidence from a Recent Financial Innovation," NBER Working Papers 19834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Benjamin Blau, 2013. "Informed short sales and option introductions," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 365-382, August.
    9. Tong, Wilson H.S. & Zhang, Shaojun & Zhu, Yanjian, 2013. "Trading on inside information: Evidence from the share-structure reform in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1422-1436.
    10. Blau, Benjamin M. & Smith, Jason M., 2014. "Autocorrelation in daily short-sale volume," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 31-41.
    11. Delisle, R. Jared & Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2012. "The dynamic relation between short sellers, option traders, and aggregate returns," MPRA Paper 42566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Blau, Benjamin M. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 2013. "Are short sellers incrementally informed prior to earnings announcements?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 142-155.
    13. Engelberg, Joseph E. & Reed, Adam V. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C., 2012. "How are shorts informed?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 260-278.
    14. Benjamin Blau & Tyler J. Brough, 2012. "Concentrated short-selling activity: bear raids or contrarian trading?," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 187-203.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:95:y:2010:i:1:p:85-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.