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Loan guarantees and credit supply

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  • Bachas, Natalie
  • Kim, Olivia S.
  • Yannelis, Constantine

Abstract

The efficiency of federal lending guarantees depends on whether guarantees increase lending supply or simply act as a subsidy to lenders. We use notches in the guarantee rate schedule for Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to estimate the elasticity of bank lending volume to loan guarantees. We show significant bunching in the loan distribution on the side of the size threshold that carries a more generous loan guarantee. The excess mass implies that increasing guarantee generosity by one percentage point of loan principal would increase per-loan lending volume by $19,000. Excess mass increases in periods with guarantee generosity, and placebo results indicate that the effect disappears when the guarantee notch is eliminated.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachas, Natalie & Kim, Olivia S. & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "Loan guarantees and credit supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 872-894.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:139:y:2021:i:3:p:872-894
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.08.008
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    3. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    4. Fang, Guanfu & Gao, Tiantian & He, Huanlang & Sun, Qian, 2023. "Public credit information arrangements and entrepreneurship: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Bofinger, Peter & Geißendörfer, Lisa & Haas, Thomas & Mayer, Fabian, 2023. "Credit as an instrument for growth: A monetary explanation of the Chinese growth story," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 107, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Meghana Ayyagari & Yuxi Cheng & Ariel Weinberger, 2022. "Surviving Pandemics: The Role of Spillovers," CESifo Working Paper Series 9891, CESifo.
    7. Carletti, Elena & Leonello, Agnese & Marquez, Robert, 2023. "Loan guarantees, bank underwriting policies and financial stability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 260-295.
    8. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Di, Wenhua & Pattison, Nathaniel, 2023. "Industry Specialization and Small Business Lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Bonfim, Diana & Custódio, Cláudia & Raposo, Clara, 2023. "Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 658-688.
    11. Wu, Kai & Jin, Zejun & Xu, Maobin, 2022. "Thirst for money: External guarantees and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Giuseppe Cascarino & Raffaele Gallo & Francesco Palazzo & Enrico Sette, 2022. "Public guarantees and credit additionality during the Covid-19 pandemic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1369, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Gustavo Joaquim & J. Christina Wang, 2022. "What Do 25 Million Records of Small Businesses Say about the Effects of the PPP?," Working Papers 22-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Slava Mikhed & Sahil Raina & Barry Scholnick & Man Zhang, 2022. "Debtor Fraud in Consumer Debt Renegotiation," Working Papers 22-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Lee, Churn Ken & Lee, Munseob, 2023. "Regional redistribution through SBA guaranteed loan programs," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Théo Nicolas & Stefano Ungaro & Éric Vansteenberghe, 2023. "Public-Guaranteed Loans, Bank Risk-Taking and Regulatory Capital Windfall [Prêts garantis par l'État, prise de risque bancaire et effet d'aubaine sur le capital réglementaire]," Débats économiques et financiers 41, Banque de France.
    17. Linjia Dong & Zhaojun Yang, 2022. "An Algorithm for the Pricing and Timing of the Option to make a Two-Stage Investment with Credit Guarantees," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 1175-1196, October.
    18. Aleksandr Kazakov & Michael Koetter & Mirko Titze & Lena Tonzer, 2022. "Firm subsidies, financial intermediation, and bank stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-078/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    19. Diana Bonfim & Cláudia Custódio, 2021. "The sensitivity of SME’s investment and employment to the cost of debt financing," Working Papers w202115, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Marcos Ceron & Gerald Cisnero & Rafael Nivin, 2023. "Impact of the Loan Guarantees Program Reactiva on the Performance of Peruvian Companies," IHEID Working Papers 18-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    21. TSURUTA Daisuke, 2023. "Credit Allocation and Public Credit Guarantee Schemes for Small Businesses: Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers 23083, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    22. Bertoni, Fabio & Colombo, Massimo G. & Quas, Anita, 2023. "The long-term effects of loan guarantees on SME performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank lending; Loan guarantee; Government loans; Borrowing; Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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