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What do measures of real-time corporate sales say about earnings surprises and post-announcement returns?

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  • Froot, Kenneth
  • Kang, Namho
  • Ozik, Gideon
  • Sadka, Ronnie

Abstract

We develop real-time proxies of retail corporate sales from multiple sources, including ∼50 million mobile devices. These measures contain information from both the earnings quarter (“within quarter”) and the period between the quarter-end and the earnings announcement date (“post quarter”). Our within-quarter measure is powerful in explaining quarterly sales growth, revenue surprises, and earnings surprises, generating average excess announcement returns of 3.4%. However, our post-quarter measure is related negatively to announcement returns and positively to post-announcement returns. When post-quarter private information is positive, managers, at announcement, provide pessimistic guidance and use negative language. This effect is more pronounced when, post-announcement, management insiders trade. We conclude that managers do not fully disclose their private information and instead bias their disclosures down when in possession of positive private information. The data suggest that they could be motivated in part by subsequent personal stock-trading opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Froot, Kenneth & Kang, Namho & Ozik, Gideon & Sadka, Ronnie, 2017. "What do measures of real-time corporate sales say about earnings surprises and post-announcement returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 143-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:1:p:143-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.04.008
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    7. Jose I. Alvarado & Lindsay C. Clark & Jose A. Gutierrez, 2021. "Stock performance subsequent to combinations in quarterly revenue surprise, earnings surprise, guidance, valuation, and report time," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(1), pages 95-117, January.
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    9. Zhi Su & Danni Wu & Zhenkun Zhou & Junran Wu & Libo Yin, 2023. "The Impact of Customer Online Satisfaction on Stock Returns: Evidence from the E-commerce Reviews in China," Papers 2306.12119, arXiv.org.
    10. Sumit Agarwal & Wenlan Qian & Xin Zou, 2021. "Disaggregated Sales and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7167-7183, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real-time corporate sales; Earnings announcement; Corporate disclosure; Insider trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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