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Market selection with idiosyncratic uncertainty

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  • Sihvonen, Markus

Abstract

I analyze the survival probabilities of different types of agents in a general equilibrium model with disagreement over idiosyncratic uncertainties. I find that such biases create a separation between individual and group level survival: even when the survival probability of a single irrational agent tends to zero, these agents may still succeed as a whole. Effectively the irrational agent population can survive due to a vanishingly small group of increasingly rich agents. Disagreement over idiosyncratic uncertainties distorts savings decisions and interest rates, but idiosyncratic risks are not priced. Simulations confirm that the limiting results are relevant when the population of irrational agents is large.

Suggested Citation

  • Sihvonen, Markus, 2019. "Market selection with idiosyncratic uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 143-160.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:182:y:2019:i:c:p:143-160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2019.04.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
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    5. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, July.
    6. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
    7. De Long, J Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H & Waldmann, Robert J, 1991. "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martinez, Joseba & Sihvonen, Markus, 2019. "Does a Currency Union Need a Capital Market Union? Risk Sharing via Banks and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Han, Kookyoung, 2021. "Self-enforcement, heterogeneous agents, and long-run survival," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Martinez, Joseba & Philippon, Thomas & Sihvonen, Markus, 2022. "Does a currency union need a capital market union?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market selection hypothesis; Asset pricing; Heterogeneous beliefs; General equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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