IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeeman/v82y2017icp181-220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality: Theory and empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia
  • Umanskaya, Victoria I.

Abstract

A typical driving restriction prohibits drivers from using their vehicles on given weekdays, based on the last digits of their vehicles’ license plates. A number of cities in developing countries have used license plate-based driving restrictions as a policy for reducing urban air pollution and traffic congestion. This paper develops a theoretical model of the effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality that combines an economic model with information about the sources and atmospheric chemistry of different air pollutants. We then draw upon suggestive empirical evidence from license plate-based driving restrictions implemented in Bogotá, Colombia. Consistent with our theory model, we find suggestive empirical evidence that under certain circumstances, due to substitution, the purchase of a second car, the use of alternative modes of transportation, and/or atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for license plate-based driving restrictions to increase air pollution. Also consistent with our theory, we find that license plate-based driving restrictions may have different effects on different air pollutants, reflecting heterogeneity in the sources and atmospheric chemistry of the pollutants. In particular, owing to atmospheric chemistry, it is possible for a license plate-based driving restriction to cause a significant decrease in NO and a significant increase in NO2, NOx, and O3.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wei & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Umanskaya, Victoria I., 2017. "The effects of license plate-based driving restrictions on air quality: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 181-220.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:181-220
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2016.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069616304922
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeem.2016.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas W. Davis, 2008. "The Effect of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality in Mexico City," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(1), pages 38-81, February.
    2. Chen, Yuyu & Jin, Ginger Zhe & Kumar, Naresh & Shi, Guang, 2013. "The promise of Beijing: Evaluating the impact of the 2008 Olympic Games on air quality," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 424-443.
    3. Wolff, Hendrik, 2014. "Keep Your Clunker in the Suburb: Low Emission Zones and Adoption of Green Vehicles," IZA Discussion Papers 8180, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    5. Viard, V. Brian & Fu, Shihe, 2015. "The effect of Beijing's driving restrictions on pollution and economic activity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 98-115.
    6. Onursal, B. & Gautam, S.P., 1997. "Vehicular Air Pollution: Experiences from Seven Latin American Urban Centers," Papers 373, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    7. Eskeland, Gunnar S & Feyzioglu, Tarhan, 1997. "Rationing Can Backfire: The "Day without a Car" in Mexico City," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 11(3), pages 383-408, September.
    8. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    9. Gallego, Francisco & Montero, Juan-Pablo & Salas, Christian, 2013. "The effect of transport policies on car use: A bundling model with applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 85-97.
    10. Gibson, Matthew & Carnovale, Maria, 2015. "The effects of road pricing on driver behavior and air pollution," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 62-73.
    11. Morrison, Geoffrey M. & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2016. "Does employment growth increase travel time to work?: An empirical analysis using military troop movements," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 180-197.
    12. Alex Anas & Robin Lindsey, 2011. "Reducing Urban Road Transportation Externalities: Road Pricing in Theory and in Practice," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 66-88, Winter.
    13. Hendrik Wolff, 2014. "Keep Your Clunker in the Suburb: Low‐emission Zones and Adoption of Green Vehicles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(578), pages 481-512, August.
    14. Jonathan Leape, 2006. "The London Congestion Charge," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 157-176, Fall.
    15. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    16. Maximilian Auffhammer & Ryan Kellogg, 2011. "Clearing the Air? The Effects of Gasoline Content Regulation on Air Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2687-2722, October.
    17. Beaudoin, Justin & Farzin, Y. Hossein & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2015. "Public transit investment and sustainable transportation: A review of studies of transit's impact on traffic congestion and air quality," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-22.
    18. Ghanem, Dalia & Zhang, Junjie, 2014. "‘Effortless Perfection:’ Do Chinese cities manipulate air pollution data?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 203-225.
    19. Chiou, Yu-Chiun & Wen, Chieh-Hua & Tsai, Shih-Hsun & Wang, Wei-Ying, 2009. "Integrated modeling of car/motorcycle ownership, type and usage for estimating energy consumption and emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 665-684, August.
    20. Gallego, Francisco & Montero, Juan-Pablo & Salas, Christian, 2013. "The effect of transport policies on car use: Evidence from Latin American cities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 47-62.
    21. Barth, Matthew & Boriboonsomsin, Kanok, 2009. "Traffic Congestion and Greenhouse Gases," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3vz7t3db, University of California Transportation Center.
    22. Anderson, Michael L., 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rivera, Nathaly M., 2021. "Air quality warnings and temporary driving bans: Evidence from air pollution, car trips, and mass-transit ridership in Santiago," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Rivera, Nathaly M., 2017. "The Effectiveness of Temporary Driving Restrictions: Evidence from Air Pollution, Vehicle Flows, and Mass-Transit Users in Santiago," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259182, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Shihe Fu & V. Brian Viard, 2022. "A mayors perspective on tackling air pollution," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 16, pages 413-437, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Viard, V. Brian & Fu, Shihe, 2015. "The effect of Beijing's driving restrictions on pollution and economic activity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 98-115.
    6. Wang, Xize & Rodríguez, Daniel A. & Mahendra, Anjali, 2021. "Support for market-based and command-and-control congestion relief policies in Latin American cities: Effects of mobility, environmental health, and city-level factors," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 91-108.
    7. Zhu, Junming & Wang, Jiali, 2021. "The effects of fuel content regulation at ports on regional pollution and shipping industry," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    8. Rhiannon Jerch & Panle Jia Barwick & Shanjun Li & Jing Wu, 2020. "Road Rationing Policies and Housing Markets," DETU Working Papers 2004, Department of Economics, Temple University.
    9. Sarmiento, Luis & Wägner, Nicole & Zaklan, Aleksandar, 2021. "Effectiveness, Spillovers, and Well-Being Effects of Driving Restriction Policies," RFF Working Paper Series 21-13, Resources for the Future.
    10. Beaudoin, Justin & Chen, Yuan & Heres, David R. & Kheiravar, Khaled H. & Lade, Gabriel E. & Yi, Fujin & Zhang, Wei & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2018. "Environmental Policies in the Transportation Sector: Taxes, Subsidies, Mandates, Restrictions, and Investment," ISU General Staff Papers 201808150700001050, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Fu, Shihe & Gu, Yizhen, 2017. "Highway toll and air pollution: Evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 32-49.
    12. Nano Barahona & Francisco A Gallego & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2020. "Vintage-Specific Driving Restrictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1646-1682.
    13. Basso, Leonardo J. & Montero, Juan-Pablo & Sepúlveda, Felipe, 2021. "A practical approach for curbing congestion and air pollution: Driving restrictions with toll and vintage exemptions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 330-352.
    14. Paul E. Carrillo & Arun S. Malik & Yiseon Yoo, 2016. "Driving restrictions that work? Quito's Pico y Placa Program," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1536-1568, November.
    15. Luechinger, Simon & Roth, Florian, 2016. "Effects of a mileage tax for trucks," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-15.
    16. Li, Pei & Lu, Yi & Wang, Jin, 2020. "The effects of fuel standards on air pollution: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    17. Piera Bello, 2021. "The environmental cost and the accident externality of driving: Evidence from the Swiss franc's appreciation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1440-1458, July.
    18. Carrillo, Paul E. & Lopez-Luzuriaga, Andrea & Malik, Arun S., 2018. "Pollution or crime: The effect of driving restrictions on criminal activity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 50-69.
    19. Catherine Hausman & David S. Rapson, 2018. "Regression Discontinuity in Time: Considerations for Empirical Applications," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 533-552, October.
    20. Salgado, Edgar & Mitnik, Oscar A., 2021. "Spatial and Time Spillovers of Driving Restrictions: Causal Evidence from Lima's Pico Y Placa Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 14932, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Q58; R48; Q53; Driving restriction; Air quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:181-220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622870 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.