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Rate fears gauges and the dynamics of fixed income and equity volatilities

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  • Mele, Antonio
  • Obayashi, Yoshiki
  • Shalen, Catherine

Abstract

While CBOE’s VIX index is widely acknowledged as a broad-based investor “fear gauge” for its strong inverse relationship with major equity indexes, one cannot necessarily expect it to translate to the level of future turbulence or investor risk-aversion in fixed-income markets. Indeed, expected volatilities in equity and interest rate markets as measured respectively by CBOE’s VIX and their newly launched swap rate volatility index, the SRVX, exhibit significantly distinct behavior. The two indexes react to different events and risk factors, thereby providing investors with complementary diversification, hedging, and risk-taking tools.

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  • Mele, Antonio & Obayashi, Yoshiki & Shalen, Catherine, 2015. "Rate fears gauges and the dynamics of fixed income and equity volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 256-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:256-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.04.030
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    2. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2021. "Implied volatility indices – A review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 303-329.
    3. Hattori, Takahiro, 2022. "Information content and market liquidity in the fixed income market: Evidence from the swaption market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Ornelas, José Renato Haas & Mauad, Roberto Baltieri, 2019. "Volatility risk premia and future commodity returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 341-360.
    5. Manuel Ammann & Mathis Mörke, 2019. "Credit Variance Risk Premiums," Working Papers on Finance 1908, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    6. Xiaoxi Liu & Jinming Xie, 2023. "Forecasting swap rate volatility with information from swaptions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 455-479, April.
    7. Holger Fink & Yulia Klimova & Claudia Czado & Jakob Stober, 2016. "Regime switching vine copula models for global equity and volatility indices," Papers 1604.05598, arXiv.org.
    8. Mele, Antonio & Distaso, Walter & Vilkov, Grigory, 2019. "Correlation Risk, Strings and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 13873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Chen, Fu-Rui & Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue, 2021. "Network connectedness between natural gas markets, uncertainty and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    10. Naifar, Nader & Mroua, Mourad & Bahloul, Slah, 2017. "Do regional and global uncertainty factors affect differently the conventional bonds and sukuk? New evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 65-74.
    11. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    12. Holger Fink & Yulia Klimova & Claudia Czado & Jakob Stöber, 2017. "Regime Switching Vine Copula Models for Global Equity and Volatility Indices," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-38, January.
    13. Xiaoxi Liu & Jinming Xie, 2023. "Forecasting swap rate volatility with information from swaptions," BIS Working Papers 1068, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate volatility; Interest rate variance swaps; Model-free pricing; VIX index; SRVX index; Basis point variance; Variance risk-premiums;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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